riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Caroline County Disaster Risk

Caroline County, Maryland

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Low

National Percentile

46th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#17

of 24 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

53th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 53% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 64% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 24% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 53% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Moderate

Higher than 88% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Caroline County, Maryland

Caroline County's risk falls modestly below national norms

Caroline County's composite risk score of 45.71 earns a "Relatively Low" rating, placing it safely below the national average for natural disaster exposure. The county's Eastern Shore location insulates it from some—but not all—major hazard types.

Mid-pack safety within Maryland

Caroline County's 45.71 score sits substantially below Maryland's state average of 60.22, ranking it in the safer half of Maryland's 24 jurisdictions. The county avoids the extreme risk levels of Baltimore City and County while facing greater hazards than Calvert County (28.91).

Caroline ranks safer than most regional peers

Caroline County (45.71) faces lower overall risk than Anne Arundel (81.87), Baltimore County (93.99), and Baltimore City (95.01), but higher risk than Calvert County (28.91). Its Eastern Shore position creates geographic insulation from the worst urban and coastal concentrations.

Hurricanes and wildfires pose main threats

Caroline County residents face elevated hurricane risk (88.15) and significant wildfire exposure (63.74), reflecting its Eastern Shore location and forested terrain. Earthquake (52.77) and flood (53.40) hazards remain moderate, while tornado danger is minimal (24.14).

Focus on wind and forest fire protection

Caroline County homeowners should prioritize windstorm coverage for hurricane season and verify adequate protection for wildfire risk, particularly in forested areas. Flood insurance is advisable for properties in designated zones, and periodic policy reviews ensure coverage stays current.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Caroline County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    HurricanePrepare
    88th percentile
  2. #2
    WildfirePrepare
    64th percentile
  3. #3
    FloodPrepare
    53th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Caroline County

Risk Verdict

With a national percentile rank of 46th, Caroline County faces below-average hazard exposure relative to U.S. counties as a whole. The 46th percentile national ranking is one lens; Caroline County residents also benefit from reviewing which specific hazard types drive the county's composite score and preparing accordingly.

Hazard Breakdown

Hurricane risk is Caroline County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 88th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Wildfire ranks second at the 64th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include flood (53th percentile), earthquake (53th percentile), tornado (24th percentile).

Preparedness Context

At the 88th percentile nationally for hurricane exposure, Caroline County households benefit from reviewing both homeowners and flood insurance coverage before storm season begins — standard policies often exclude storm surge, which is the leading cause of hurricane fatalities. Wildfire at the 64th percentile nationally is Caroline County's secondary hazard, often intensified by the same weather systems that produce hurricane conditions. Hurricane-force winds cause direct property damage, but storm surge causes the majority of hurricane-related deaths. Caroline County households near tidal water or low-elevation areas should verify whether they are in a storm surge risk zone.

Regional Context

Caroline County falls 14.5 points below Maryland's typical county risk level, making it one of the safer natural-hazard environments in the state.

Is your household prepared for Caroline County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Caroline County, MD?
Caroline County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low, placing it in the 46th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Caroline County?
Caroline County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: hurricane (88th percentile), wildfire (64th percentile), flooding (53th percentile), earthquake (53th percentile), tornado (24th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is hurricane at the 88th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Caroline County risk compare to the Maryland average?
Caroline County's composite risk percentile is 46th, compared to the Maryland state average of 60th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means Caroline County faces lower natural disaster risk than the typical county in Maryland.
Is Caroline County at risk for hurricane?
Yes, Caroline County's hurricane risk is at the 88th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Caroline County is at the 53th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Is Caroline County a safe place to live?
Caroline County's composite risk score of 46th percentile is below the Maryland state average of 60th percentile, indicating relatively lower exposure to natural hazards. However, no county is completely risk-free. The primary hazard type is hurricane at the 88th percentile. Residents should still maintain emergency preparedness plans and appropriate insurance coverage.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.