riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Shelby County Disaster Risk

Shelby County, Missouri

FEMA Risk Rating

Very Low

National Percentile

16th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#106

of 115 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

15th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Very Low

Higher than 15% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Very Low

Higher than 21% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 37% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Very Low

Higher than 39% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Very Low

Higher than 14% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Shelby County, Missouri

Shelby County: Well Below National Risk

Shelby County's composite risk score of 15.94 places it in the "Very Low" category, significantly below the national average. This means residents face substantially fewer natural disaster threats than most Americans.

Among Missouri's Safest Counties

At 15.94, Shelby County's risk score is less than one-third of Missouri's state average of 50.56, making it one of the state's lowest-risk communities. Few Missouri counties offer comparable natural disaster protection.

Shelby Stands Out in Regional Comparison

Shelby County (15.94) is significantly safer than nearby St. Clair County (25.64) and substantially lower-risk than all other eastern Missouri counties profiled. Its composite score reflects exceptional protection across most hazard types.

Earthquakes and Tornadoes Pose Top Threats

Shelby County's highest risks are earthquake (39.47) and tornado (37.25) events, though both remain well below state averages. Flood risk (14.57) and wildfire risk (20.77) are minimal concerns for residents.

Basic Coverage Sufficient for Low-Risk County

While Shelby County's overall risk is very low, homeowners should maintain standard tornado and earthquake coverage as precautions. Review your current policy to ensure adequate protection for the hazards you do face.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Shelby County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    EarthquakePrepare
    39th percentile
  2. #2
    TornadoPrepare
    37th percentile
  3. #3
    WildfirePrepare
    21th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Shelby County

Risk Verdict

Shelby County sits in the lower tier of U.S. counties for natural disaster exposure, ranked at the 16th percentile nationally. A 16th percentile score positions Shelby County among the nation's lower-risk counties, a genuinely favorable outcome — one that simple, low-cost preparedness habits can reinforce further.

Hazard Breakdown

Earthquake risk is Shelby County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 39th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Tornado ranks second at the 37th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include wildfire (21th percentile), flood (15th percentile), hurricane (14th percentile).

Preparedness Context

At the 39th percentile nationally for earthquake exposure, Shelby County households benefit from practicing Drop, Cover, and Hold On — the protocol that minimizes injury during shaking. Getting under a sturdy table or desk and holding on until shaking stops is the key action. Alongside earthquake exposure, Shelby County's tornado risk at the 37th percentile nationally reinforces the value of maintaining a household emergency supply cache usable for multiple hazard scenarios. Building age matters for earthquake risk in Shelby County: structures built before local seismic code adoption are statistically more vulnerable. Contacting the local building department about retrofit programs can reveal whether your structure qualifies for mitigation assistance.

Regional Context

Shelby County falls 34.6 points below Missouri's typical county risk level, making it one of the safer natural-hazard environments in the state.

Is your household prepared for Shelby County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Shelby County, MO?
Shelby County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low, placing it in the 16th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Shelby County?
Shelby County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: earthquake (39th percentile), tornado (37th percentile), wildfire (21th percentile), flooding (15th percentile), hurricane (14th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is earthquake at the 39th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Shelby County risk compare to the Missouri average?
Shelby County's composite risk percentile is 16th, compared to the Missouri state average of 51th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means Shelby County faces lower natural disaster risk than the typical county in Missouri.
Is Shelby County at risk for earthquake?
Yes, Shelby County's earthquake risk is at the 39th percentile nationally. This is below the national median, indicating relatively lower exposure. For flooding specifically, Shelby County is at the 15th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Is Shelby County a safe place to live?
Shelby County's composite risk score of 16th percentile is below the Missouri state average of 51th percentile, indicating relatively lower exposure to natural hazards. However, no county is completely risk-free. The primary hazard type is earthquake at the 39th percentile. Residents should still maintain emergency preparedness plans and appropriate insurance coverage.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.