riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Lincoln County Disaster Risk

Lincoln County, Montana

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Low

National Percentile

64th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#10

of 56 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

65th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 65% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Relatively High

Higher than 97% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 6% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 64% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Lincoln County, Montana

Lincoln County carries elevated disaster risk

Lincoln County's composite risk score of 64.28 ranks it as relatively low nationally but significantly above average for exposure to natural hazards. The score primarily reflects concentrated wildfire and earthquake vulnerabilities.

Among Montana's higher-risk counties

At 64.28, Lincoln County substantially exceeds Montana's state average of 33.31, ranking among the state's most hazard-exposed areas. Only a few Montana counties show comparable or higher composite risk scores.

Riskier than most regional peers

Lincoln County's score of 64.28 exceeds neighboring Mineral County (7.35) and Madison County (41.03) but falls slightly below Missoula County (77.04). The western Montana region shows substantial variation in disaster risk.

Wildfire and earthquake create serious exposure

Wildfire risk in Lincoln County reaches 96.60—among the highest in Montana—while earthquake risk scores 63.55, reflecting the county's mountain location. Flood risk at 65.49 adds a third meaningful hazard, particularly for properties near rivers and streams.

Wildfire coverage is non-negotiable

Lincoln County residents must verify that wildfire damage is explicitly covered in their homeowners policy, as many standard policies exclude it despite the 96.60 wildfire risk score. Adding earthquake coverage and reviewing flood risk for your specific property location are equally important protective steps.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Lincoln County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    WildfirePrepare
    97th percentile
  2. #2
    FloodPrepare
    65th percentile
  3. #3
    EarthquakePrepare
    64th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Lincoln County

Risk Verdict

Lincoln County ranks at the 64th percentile nationally for natural disaster risk — below the median for U.S. counties. Residents are encouraged to understand which hazards dominate locally and tailor their preparedness accordingly.

Hazard Breakdown

Wildfire risk is Lincoln County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 97th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Flood ranks second at the 65th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include earthquake (64th percentile), tornado (6th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Lincoln County's dominant hazard is wildfire, ranked at the 97th percentile nationally. Maintaining at least 30 feet of lean, clean vegetation around structures in Lincoln County and keeping gutters clear of debris significantly reduces ignition risk from wind-driven embers. A secondary flood exposure at the 65th percentile nationally means Lincoln County residents face hazards from two distinct natural peril categories during different seasons. Lincoln County's households benefit from reviewing homeowners insurance before fire season, specifically whether the policy covers replacement cost rather than actual cash value, and whether it includes additional living expenses if displacement is required.

Regional Context

Compared to other Montana counties, Lincoln County runs 31.0 composite risk points higher than the state mean — reflecting above-average hazard concentration in this area.

Is your household prepared for Lincoln County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Lincoln County, MT?
Lincoln County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low, placing it in the 64th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Lincoln County?
Lincoln County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: wildfire (97th percentile), flooding (65th percentile), earthquake (64th percentile), tornado (6th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is wildfire at the 97th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Lincoln County risk compare to the Montana average?
Lincoln County's composite risk percentile is 64th, compared to the Montana state average of 33th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Very Low. This means Lincoln County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Montana.
Is Lincoln County at risk for wildfire?
Yes, Lincoln County's wildfire risk is at the 97th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Lincoln County is at the 65th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Lincoln County higher risk than average?
Lincoln County's composite risk score of 64th percentile is above the Montana state average of 33th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by wildfire exposure (97th percentile), along with flooding and earthquake risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.