riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Shelby County Disaster Risk

Shelby County, Texas

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Low

National Percentile

56th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#123

of 254 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

45th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 45% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 71% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 75% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 48% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Moderate

Higher than 83% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Shelby County, Texas

Shelby: Above-Average Risk Profile

Shelby County's composite risk score of 55.73 places it in the relatively low category, but above the national average. Your county faces moderate natural disaster exposure compared to the typical American county.

Mid-Range Risk Among Texas Counties

At 55.73, Shelby's risk score sits slightly above Texas's state average of 49.00, ranking it in the middle tier of Texas counties. This reflects exposure to multiple hazard types across the region.

Higher Risk Than Most Neighbors

Shelby County faces notably higher risk than Shackelford (1.43), Sterling (1.11), and Stephens (9.22) counties to the west. However, it shares similar hurricane and tornado vulnerability with other East Texas communities.

Hurricanes and Tornadoes Lead

Hurricane risk (83.23) and tornado risk (75.13) drive Shelby's elevated profile, reflecting its position in hurricane-vulnerable East Texas. Flood risk (45.10) also poses meaningful exposure, particularly in spring months.

Hurricane and Wind Coverage Essential

Shelby residents should prioritize hurricane and wind damage coverage as primary protections. Standard homeowners policies cover wind, but consider flood insurance separately, especially if you live near streams or drainage areas.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Shelby County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    HurricanePrepare
    83th percentile
  2. #2
    TornadoPrepare
    75th percentile
  3. #3
    WildfirePrepare
    71th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Shelby County

Risk Verdict

Shelby County has a below-average natural disaster risk profile, scoring at the 56th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Households in Shelby County benefit from knowing which individual hazard types — flood, wildfire, tornado, or hurricane — are the primary contributors.

Hazard Breakdown

Hurricane risk is Shelby County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 83th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Tornado ranks second at the 75th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include wildfire (71th percentile), earthquake (48th percentile), flood (45th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Hurricane risk is Shelby County's top-ranked natural hazard at the 83th percentile nationally. The most time-sensitive preparedness step is knowing the county's evacuation zone for your address — zone maps are published by the county emergency management office. Tornado at the 75th percentile nationally is Shelby County's secondary hazard, often intensified by the same weather systems that produce hurricane conditions. Shelby County's county emergency management office publishes official evacuation zone maps with zone-specific shelter locations; downloading this map and identifying your zone assignment is the single highest-value pre-season step.

Regional Context

Shelby County's composite risk score sits 6.7 points above the Texas county average, placing it among the more hazard-exposed counties in the state.

Is your household prepared for Shelby County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Shelby County, TX?
Shelby County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low, placing it in the 56th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Shelby County?
Shelby County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: hurricane (83th percentile), tornado (75th percentile), wildfire (71th percentile), earthquake (48th percentile), flooding (45th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is hurricane at the 83th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Shelby County risk compare to the Texas average?
Shelby County's composite risk percentile is 56th, compared to the Texas state average of 49th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means Shelby County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Texas.
Is Shelby County at risk for hurricane?
Yes, Shelby County's hurricane risk is at the 83th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Shelby County is at the 45th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Shelby County higher risk than average?
Shelby County's composite risk score of 56th percentile is above the Texas state average of 49th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by hurricane exposure (83th percentile), along with tornado and wildfire risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.