riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Caroline County Disaster Risk

Caroline County, Virginia

FEMA Risk Rating

Very Low

National Percentile

21th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#76

of 133 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

27th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Very Low

Higher than 27% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Very Low

Higher than 19% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 30% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 60% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 79% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Caroline County, Virginia

Caroline's risk sits below national average

Caroline County's composite risk score of 20.71 and Very Low rating reflect below-average natural disaster exposure compared to most U.S. counties. The county's diversified hazard profile shows notable hurricane exposure balanced by lower flood and wildfire concerns.

Among Virginia's safer communities

Caroline County's composite score of 20.71 falls well below Virginia's state average of 33.27, positioning it among the commonwealth's more protected jurisdictions. The county benefits from geography that limits some hazards while retaining moderate exposure to others.

Less risky than most surrounding areas

Caroline County's risk score of 20.71 compares favorably to Campbell County (32.00) and Charlottesville city (24.33) but closely mirrors Charlotte County (17.37). The county's tornado exposure at 30.25 stands out as its most notable hazard concentration among local peers.

Hurricanes and tornadoes top Caroline's list

Caroline County faces its highest risks through hurricane exposure at 78.97 and tornado risk at 30.25, with flooding at 26.78 representing a secondary concern. Earthquake (59.92) and wildfire (19.43) risks remain relatively contained within the county's overall low-risk profile.

Hurricane preparation and flood coverage essential

Homeowners should prepare for hurricane season with secured shutters, roof inspections, and tree trimming, given the county's 78.97 hurricane exposure score. Obtain flood insurance if in any flood zone, and maintain standard homeowners coverage to address tornado and wind damage risks.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Caroline County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    HurricanePrepare
    79th percentile
  2. #2
    EarthquakePrepare
    60th percentile
  3. #3
    TornadoPrepare
    30th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Local Resources

Risk Advisory: Caroline County

Risk Verdict

Caroline County's overall natural disaster score at the 21th percentile puts it well below the national median for hazard exposure. Even at the 21th percentile, Caroline County's composite score reflects real hazard exposure categories — knowing which ones apply locally enables targeted, efficient household preparedness.

Hazard Breakdown

Hurricane risk is Caroline County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 79th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Earthquake ranks second at the 60th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include tornado (30th percentile), flood (27th percentile), wildfire (19th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Hurricane exposure at the 79th percentile nationally makes Caroline County a county where pre-season preparedness — not storm-day preparation — determines outcomes. Caroline County evacuation decisions under a watch or warning benefit from prior planning, not routes improvised under time pressure. Earthquake, the county's second-ranked hazard at the 60th percentile nationally, represents an additional preparedness consideration for Caroline County independent of hurricane season. Caroline County residents benefit from registering with the county's special-needs evacuation registry if household members have mobility limitations, require electricity-dependent medical equipment, or cannot self-evacuate — registration in advance of storm season is required.

Regional Context

Caroline County's composite risk score sits 12.6 points below the Virginia county average, reflecting a more favorable hazard environment than the state typical.

Is your household prepared for Caroline County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Caroline County, VA?
Caroline County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low, placing it in the 21th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Caroline County?
Caroline County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: hurricane (79th percentile), earthquake (60th percentile), tornado (30th percentile), flooding (27th percentile), wildfire (19th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is hurricane at the 79th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Caroline County risk compare to the Virginia average?
Caroline County's composite risk percentile is 21th, compared to the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Very Low. This means Caroline County faces lower natural disaster risk than the typical county in Virginia.
Is Caroline County at risk for hurricane?
Yes, Caroline County's hurricane risk is at the 79th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Caroline County is at the 27th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Is Caroline County a safe place to live?
Caroline County's composite risk score of 21th percentile is below the Virginia state average of 33th percentile, indicating relatively lower exposure to natural hazards. However, no county is completely risk-free. The primary hazard type is hurricane at the 79th percentile. Residents should still maintain emergency preparedness plans and appropriate insurance coverage.

Counties with Similar Risk

Patrick County

Virginia

+0.2

Very Low

21th percentile

Amherst County

Virginia

+0.3

Very Low

21th percentile

Powhatan County

Virginia

+0.4

Very Low

21th percentile

By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.

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