riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Fairfax city Disaster Risk

Fairfax city, Virginia

FEMA Risk Rating

Very Low

National Percentile

5th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#121

of 133 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

14th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Very Low

Higher than 14% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Very Low

Higher than 1% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 20% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 48% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 62% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Fairfax city, Virginia

Fairfax city is extremely safe

Fairfax's composite risk score of 5.28 ranks in the very low category, nearly four times lower than the national average. The city shows minimal exposure across flood (13.52), wildfire (1.05), and tornado (20.10) hazards, making it one of the safest localities in the nation.

Among Virginia's lowest-risk jurisdictions

Fairfax city's score of 5.28 is less than one-sixth of Virginia's state average of 33.27, placing it in the very safest tier statewide. The city's robust protection across most hazard categories reflects its location, infrastructure, and prepared governance.

Fairfax city outshines northern Virginia

Fairfax city's composite score of 5.28 is dramatically lower than neighboring Fairfax County's 94.66, demonstrating stark differences in disaster vulnerability within the same metro area. Fairfax city also maintains substantially lower risk than Falls Church city (1.62) is even safer.

No dominant natural disaster threat

Fairfax city's risk profile is remarkably balanced, with no single hazard dominating—wildfire risk of 1.05 is the lowest threat, while hurricane risk of 62.16 is the highest. Even the city's peak exposure remains minimal compared to state and national standards.

Standard coverage is typically sufficient

Fairfax city residents can rely on standard homeowner's insurance without specialized hazard coverage in most cases. Review your policy annually to ensure adequate replacement cost coverage, and maintain routine home maintenance to prevent weather-related damage.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Fairfax city

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    HurricanePrepare
    62th percentile
  2. #2
    EarthquakePrepare
    48th percentile
  3. #3
    TornadoPrepare
    20th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Fairfax city

Risk Verdict

Fairfax city's overall natural disaster score at the 5th percentile puts it well below the national median for hazard exposure. No county at the 5th percentile is entirely free of natural hazard exposure; Fairfax city residents benefit from staying alert to local conditions and signing up for county emergency alerts.

Hazard Breakdown

Hurricane risk is Fairfax city's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 62th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Earthquake ranks second at the 48th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include tornado (20th percentile), flood (14th percentile), wildfire (1th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Hurricane exposure at the 62th percentile nationally makes Fairfax city a county where pre-season preparedness — not storm-day preparation — determines outcomes. Fairfax city evacuation decisions under a watch or warning benefit from prior planning, not routes improvised under time pressure. The county's secondary earthquake risk at the 48th percentile nationally means Fairfax city faces compounding hazards — inland flooding often follows landfalling hurricanes even well away from the coast. Fairfax city residents benefit from registering with the county's special-needs evacuation registry if household members have mobility limitations, require electricity-dependent medical equipment, or cannot self-evacuate — registration in advance of storm season is required.

Regional Context

Fairfax city's composite risk score sits 28.0 points below the Virginia county average, reflecting a more favorable hazard environment than the state typical.

Is your household prepared for Fairfax city's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Fairfax city, VA?
Fairfax city has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low, placing it in the 5th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Fairfax city?
Fairfax city is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: hurricane (62th percentile), earthquake (48th percentile), tornado (20th percentile), flooding (14th percentile), wildfire (1th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is hurricane at the 62th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Fairfax city risk compare to the Virginia average?
Fairfax city's composite risk percentile is 5th, compared to the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Very Low. This means Fairfax city faces lower natural disaster risk than the typical county in Virginia.
Is Fairfax city at risk for hurricane?
Yes, Fairfax city's hurricane risk is at the 62th percentile nationally. This is above the national median. For flooding specifically, Fairfax city is at the 14th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Is Fairfax city a safe place to live?
Fairfax city's composite risk score of 5th percentile is below the Virginia state average of 33th percentile, indicating relatively lower exposure to natural hazards. However, no county is completely risk-free. The primary hazard type is hurricane at the 62th percentile. Residents should still maintain emergency preparedness plans and appropriate insurance coverage.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.