riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Lancaster County Disaster Risk

Lancaster County, Virginia

FEMA Risk Rating

Very Low

National Percentile

32th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#60

of 133 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

61th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 61% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Very Low

Higher than 18% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 21% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 43% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Moderate

Higher than 85% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Lancaster County, Virginia

Lancaster: Low Risk Despite Exposure

Lancaster County's composite risk score of 32.28 and Very Low rating keep it below the national disaster risk average. Despite elevated hazard exposure in some categories, your county remains a relatively safe place overall.

Nearly Meets Virginia's Average

At 32.28, Lancaster County sits just below Virginia's state average of 33.27, reflecting moderate disaster risk within the commonwealth. Your county is roughly average compared to other Virginia counties.

Higher Risk Than Nearby Counties

Lancaster's 32.28 score exceeds neighboring King William (8.27), King George (12.75), and King and Queen (16.19) but matches Louisa County (32.19). Your county faces notably higher hazard exposure than its immediate southern neighbors.

Hurricanes and Flooding Drive Risk

Lancaster County faces the state's highest hurricane risk at 85.48 and significant flood exposure at 60.60, driven by its Eastern Shore coastal location. Earthquakes (42.91) present moderate concern, while tornadoes and wildfires remain relatively minimal threats.

Flood and Hurricane Insurance Essential

Your county's location on the Eastern Shore makes flood and hurricane coverage non-negotiable—standard policies exclude both. Review your coverage limits regularly and consider additional windstorm protection given the 85.48 hurricane risk score.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Lancaster County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    HurricanePrepare
    85th percentile
  2. #2
    FloodPrepare
    61th percentile
  3. #3
    EarthquakePrepare
    43th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Lancaster County

Risk Verdict

Lancaster County's overall natural disaster score at the 32th percentile puts it well below the national median for hazard exposure. Residents of Lancaster County can use the 32th percentile ranking as a baseline, while recognizing that individual properties may still lie in specific hazard zones that differ from the county average.

Hazard Breakdown

Hurricane risk is Lancaster County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 85th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Flood ranks second at the 61th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include earthquake (43th percentile), tornado (21th percentile), wildfire (18th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Hurricane exposure at the 85th percentile nationally makes Lancaster County a county where pre-season preparedness — not storm-day preparation — determines outcomes. Lancaster County evacuation decisions under a watch or warning benefit from prior planning, not routes improvised under time pressure. Lancaster County's flood exposure at the 61th percentile nationally adds a hazard layer that can persist or intensify after hurricane-force winds have passed, particularly in low-lying inland areas. Lancaster County residents benefit from registering with the county's special-needs evacuation registry if household members have mobility limitations, require electricity-dependent medical equipment, or cannot self-evacuate — registration in advance of storm season is required.

Regional Context

Lancaster County's risk score is broadly comparable to the Virginia county average, with a 1.0-point gap that places the county near the center of the state's hazard distribution.

Is your household prepared for Lancaster County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Lancaster County, VA?
Lancaster County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low, placing it in the 32th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Lancaster County?
Lancaster County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: hurricane (85th percentile), flooding (61th percentile), earthquake (43th percentile), tornado (21th percentile), wildfire (18th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is hurricane at the 85th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Lancaster County risk compare to the Virginia average?
Lancaster County's composite risk percentile is 32th, compared to the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Very Low. This means Lancaster County faces lower natural disaster risk than the typical county in Virginia.
Is Lancaster County at risk for hurricane?
Yes, Lancaster County's hurricane risk is at the 85th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Lancaster County is at the 61th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Is Lancaster County a safe place to live?
Lancaster County's composite risk score of 32th percentile is below the Virginia state average of 33th percentile, indicating relatively lower exposure to natural hazards. However, no county is completely risk-free. The primary hazard type is hurricane at the 85th percentile. Residents should still maintain emergency preparedness plans and appropriate insurance coverage.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.