riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Middlesex County Disaster Risk

Middlesex County, Virginia

FEMA Risk Rating

Very Low

National Percentile

24th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#71

of 133 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

58th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 58% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Very Low

Higher than 31% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 23% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Very Low

Higher than 37% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Moderate

Higher than 86% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Middlesex County, Virginia

Middlesex sits well below national risk

With a composite risk score of 23.79, Middlesex County ranks as Very Low nationally—well below the nation's average exposure to natural disasters. Your county faces significantly less overall threat than most American communities.

Safer than most Virginia counties

Middlesex's score of 23.79 places it comfortably below Virginia's state average of 33.27. You're among the lower-risk counties in your state when it comes to natural disaster exposure.

Neighborhood risk comparison

Middlesex's 23.79 score edges out New Kent County (14.12) as safer, but outperforms nearby Nelson County (34.10) and Northumberland County (39.98). Your risk profile aligns with the region's most protected areas.

Hurricane threat dominates your profile

Hurricane risk scores highest at 85.52, reflecting coastal exposure to Atlantic storms—though moderate elevation limits overall danger. Flood risk (58.00) comes second, with earthquake and wildfire threats remaining minimal at 36.86 and 31.42 respectively.

Prioritize flood and hurricane coverage

Standard homeowners insurance doesn't cover flood or hurricane damage, making separate policies essential for your county's leading hazards. Review coverage annually before Atlantic storm season and ensure your property meets current building codes for wind resistance.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Middlesex County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    HurricanePrepare
    86th percentile
  2. #2
    FloodPrepare
    58th percentile
  3. #3
    EarthquakePrepare
    37th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Middlesex County

Risk Verdict

Middlesex County carries a low natural disaster risk burden, scoring at the 24th percentile under the FEMA National Risk Index. Middlesex County's 24th percentile ranking is favorable, though every county carries at least one natural hazard worth knowing — reviewing the specific risks listed above helps households focus their preparedness where it matters most.

Hazard Breakdown

Hurricane risk is Middlesex County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 86th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Flood ranks second at the 58th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include earthquake (37th percentile), wildfire (31th percentile), tornado (23th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Middlesex County's primary hazard, hurricane, ranks at the 86th percentile nationally. Having a designated out-of-area contact, a pre-packed go-bag with medications and documents, and a confirmed evacuation route reduces decision-making load when a storm intensifies rapidly. Flood at the 58th percentile nationally is Middlesex County's secondary hazard, often intensified by the same weather systems that produce hurricane conditions. The National Hurricane Center's official forecast cone and local NWS office watches and warnings are the authoritative sources for Middlesex County storm tracking; households benefit from bookmarking these before storm season rather than relying on social media during an event.

Regional Context

Compared to the Virginia county average, Middlesex County's composite score runs 9.5 points lower — a gap that reflects the county's relatively modest hazard profile within its state context.

Is your household prepared for Middlesex County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Middlesex County, VA?
Middlesex County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low, placing it in the 24th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Middlesex County?
Middlesex County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: hurricane (86th percentile), flooding (58th percentile), earthquake (37th percentile), wildfire (31th percentile), tornado (23th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is hurricane at the 86th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Middlesex County risk compare to the Virginia average?
Middlesex County's composite risk percentile is 24th, compared to the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Very Low. This means Middlesex County faces lower natural disaster risk than the typical county in Virginia.
Is Middlesex County at risk for hurricane?
Yes, Middlesex County's hurricane risk is at the 86th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Middlesex County is at the 58th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Is Middlesex County a safe place to live?
Middlesex County's composite risk score of 24th percentile is below the Virginia state average of 33th percentile, indicating relatively lower exposure to natural hazards. However, no county is completely risk-free. The primary hazard type is hurricane at the 86th percentile. Residents should still maintain emergency preparedness plans and appropriate insurance coverage.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.