riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Shenandoah County Disaster Risk

Shenandoah County, Virginia

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Low

National Percentile

60th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#24

of 133 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

74th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 74% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 63% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 27% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 57% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 80% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Shenandoah County, Virginia

Shenandoah faces elevated national risk

Shenandoah County scores 59.83 with a Relatively Low rating, placing it nearly 26 points above Virginia's average of 33.27. This above-state-average exposure reflects the county's diverse hazard vulnerabilities, from hurricanes to floods.

Among Virginia's higher-risk counties

Shenandoah County ranks in the upper half of Virginia's risk distribution at 59.83, reflecting notably elevated exposure compared to most Commonwealth counties. The rating signals residents should take preparedness seriously.

Riskier than peers in the Shenandoah region

Shenandoah County's 59.83 composite score exceeds Smyth County (57.79) and significantly outpaces Scott County (41.95). The county's 80.14 hurricane risk—the state's highest—drives much of this elevation and reflects vulnerability to Atlantic tropical systems.

Hurricanes, flooding, and wildfires threaten

Hurricane risk at 80.14 dominates Shenandoah's hazard landscape, followed closely by flood risk at 73.89—both well above state and national averages. Wildfire exposure at 63.36 also ranks among Virginia's highest, creating a compound vulnerability to weather-driven disasters.

Hurricane insurance and flood prep matter most

Shenandoah County homeowners must ensure wind and hail coverage is robust given the 80.14 hurricane risk score; standard policies sometimes exclude these perils. Flood insurance is essential: at 73.89 flood risk, the Shenandoah Valley's river systems pose meaningful threats to properties in low-lying areas.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Shenandoah County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    HurricanePrepare
    80th percentile
  2. #2
    FloodPrepare
    74th percentile
  3. #3
    WildfirePrepare
    63th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Shenandoah County

Risk Verdict

With a national percentile rank of 60th, Shenandoah County faces below-average hazard exposure relative to U.S. counties as a whole. Above-average risk does not mean imminent danger; it signals that informed, hazard-specific preparedness has high value here.

Hazard Breakdown

Hurricane risk is Shenandoah County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 80th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Flood ranks second at the 74th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include wildfire (63th percentile), earthquake (57th percentile), tornado (27th percentile).

Preparedness Context

At the 80th percentile nationally for hurricane exposure, Shenandoah County households benefit from reviewing both homeowners and flood insurance coverage before storm season begins — standard policies often exclude storm surge, which is the leading cause of hurricane fatalities. Flood, the county's second-ranked hazard at the 74th percentile nationally, represents an additional preparedness consideration for Shenandoah County independent of hurricane season. Hurricane-force winds cause direct property damage, but storm surge causes the majority of hurricane-related deaths. Shenandoah County households near tidal water or low-elevation areas should verify whether they are in a storm surge risk zone.

Regional Context

At 26.6 points above the Virginia state average, Shenandoah County carries meaningfully higher natural disaster exposure than a typical Virginia county.

Is your household prepared for Shenandoah County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Shenandoah County, VA?
Shenandoah County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low, placing it in the 60th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Shenandoah County?
Shenandoah County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: hurricane (80th percentile), flooding (74th percentile), wildfire (63th percentile), earthquake (57th percentile), tornado (27th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is hurricane at the 80th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Shenandoah County risk compare to the Virginia average?
Shenandoah County's composite risk percentile is 60th, compared to the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Very Low. This means Shenandoah County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Virginia.
Is Shenandoah County at risk for hurricane?
Yes, Shenandoah County's hurricane risk is at the 80th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Shenandoah County is at the 74th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Shenandoah County higher risk than average?
Shenandoah County's composite risk score of 60th percentile is above the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by hurricane exposure (80th percentile), along with flooding and wildfire and earthquake risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.