riskbycounty
FEMA National Risk Index

Coconino County Disaster Risk

Coconino County, Arizona

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Moderate

National Percentile

94th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#4

of 15 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

96th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively High

Higher than 96% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Relatively High

Higher than 99% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 24% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Moderate

Higher than 90% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Very Low

Higher than 0% of US counties

Risk Advisory: Coconino County

Risk Verdict

Coconino County has a relatively moderate overall disaster risk profile, scoring in the 94th percentile nationally. While not in the highest tier, this county faces meaningful hazard exposure. Residents are encouraged to understand their specific risks and maintain emergency supplies.

Hazard Breakdown

Wildfire risk is the dominant hazard for Coconino County, scoring in the 99th percentile nationally. It is followed by flood risk at the 96th percentile. Additional hazards include earthquake (90th), tornado (24th), hurricane (0th).

Preparedness Context

With wildfire risk as the top concern, Coconino County residents should create defensible space around your property, sign up for local emergency alerts, and prepare a go-bag with essential documents and medications. Secondary risks such as flood also warrant attention in household and community preparedness planning. FEMA recommends all households maintain at least 72 hours of food, water, and medication supplies regardless of specific hazard exposure.

Regional Context

Coconino County is significantly riskier than the average county in Arizona. Its composite risk score is 9.8 points higher than the state average, meaning residents face above-average exposure to natural hazards compared to their neighbors.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Coconino County, AZ?
Coconino County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Moderate, placing it in the 94th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Coconino County?
Coconino County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: wildfire (99th percentile), flooding (96th percentile), earthquake (90th percentile), tornado (24th percentile), hurricane (0th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is wildfire at the 99th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Coconino County risk compare to the Arizona average?
Coconino County's composite risk percentile is 94th, compared to the Arizona state average of 85th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Moderate. This means Coconino County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Arizona.
Is Coconino County at risk for wildfire?
Yes, Coconino County's wildfire risk is at the 99th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Coconino County is at the 96th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Coconino County higher risk than average?
Coconino County's composite risk score of 94th percentile is above the Arizona state average of 85th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by wildfire exposure (99th percentile), along with flooding and earthquake risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.

Counties with Similar Risk

Pinal County

Arizona

-0.4

Relatively Moderate

94th percentile

Yavapai County

Arizona

-0.5

Relatively Moderate

94th percentile

Mohave County

Arizona

+0.5

Relatively High

95th percentile

By Logan Johnson, Founder & Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Logan Johnson, Founder & Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.

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