riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Coconino County Disaster Risk

Coconino County, Arizona

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Moderate

National Percentile

94th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#4

of 15 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

96th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively High

Higher than 96% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Relatively High

Higher than 99% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 24% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Moderate

Higher than 90% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Very Low

Higher than 0% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Coconino County, Arizona

Coconino County faces elevated risks

Coconino County scores 94.21 on the composite risk scale, ranking in the "Relatively Moderate" category and above Arizona's state average of 84.45. The high-elevation county contends with some of the state's most severe wildfire and flood exposures.

Among Arizona's highest-risk counties

Coconino County ranks among the top-risk counties statewide, with a composite score that exceeds 94 out of 100. Only a handful of Arizona counties, including Maricopa, face equal or greater combined hazard exposure.

Riskier than Apache to the south

Coconino County's 94.21 score significantly exceeds Apache County (78.78) to the south and edges out Gila County (90.17) to the southeast. Its position in Arizona's high-risk tier reflects the concentration of wildfire, flood, and earthquake hazards in the region.

Wildfire and flood are severe threats

Coconino County experiences near-maximum wildfire risk (99.40) paired with extreme flood risk (96.47), driven by heavy monsoon rains and forest density. Earthquake risk also scores high at 90.36, creating compound vulnerability affecting infrastructure and safety planning.

Prioritize wildfire and flood coverage now

Wildfire and flood insurance are non-negotiable in Coconino County, given both hazards score above 96. Homeowners should also evaluate earthquake insurance, especially for structures not designed to modern seismic standards.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Coconino County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    WildfirePrepare
    99th percentile
  2. #2
    FloodPrepare
    96th percentile
  3. #3
    EarthquakePrepare
    90th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Coconino County

Risk Verdict

With a composite score at the 94th percentile, Coconino County sits above the national median for natural hazard exposure. Proactive preparedness — not reactive response — is key to managing life in one of the country's higher-risk counties; Coconino County residents should plan accordingly.

Hazard Breakdown

Wildfire risk is Coconino County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 99th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Flood ranks second at the 96th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include earthquake (90th percentile), tornado (24th percentile), hurricane (0th percentile).

Preparedness Context

At the 99th percentile nationally for wildfire risk, Coconino County households benefit from creating defensible space — a buffer of reduced vegetation around structures — and reviewing whether homeowners insurance covers wildfire damage in this region. Alongside wildfire, flood at the 96th percentile nationally means a multi-season preparedness mindset — fire season and flood or storm season often require different household plans. Enrolling in the county's wireless emergency alert system and keeping a vehicle at least half-full during peak fire season are low-cost habits that dramatically reduce evacuation lag time for Coconino County residents.

Regional Context

At 9.8 points above the Arizona state average, Coconino County carries meaningfully higher natural disaster exposure than a typical Arizona county.

Is your household prepared for Coconino County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Coconino County, AZ?
Coconino County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Moderate, placing it in the 94th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Coconino County?
Coconino County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: wildfire (99th percentile), flooding (96th percentile), earthquake (90th percentile), tornado (24th percentile), hurricane (0th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is wildfire at the 99th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Coconino County risk compare to the Arizona average?
Coconino County's composite risk percentile is 94th, compared to the Arizona state average of 85th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Moderate. This means Coconino County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Arizona.
Is Coconino County at risk for wildfire?
Yes, Coconino County's wildfire risk is at the 99th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Coconino County is at the 96th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Coconino County higher risk than average?
Coconino County's composite risk score of 94th percentile is above the Arizona state average of 85th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by wildfire exposure (99th percentile), along with flooding and earthquake risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.