riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Santa Cruz County Disaster Risk

Santa Cruz County, Arizona

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Moderate

National Percentile

88th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#10

of 15 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

87th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Moderate

Higher than 87% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Relatively High

Higher than 98% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 9% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 43% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Very Low

Higher than 17% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Santa Cruz County, Arizona

Santa Cruz moderately exceeds baseline

Santa Cruz County scores 88.33 on composite risk, placing it in the relatively moderate category above national averages. The score reflects meaningful wildfire and flood exposure balanced against lower earthquake and minimal tornado threat.

Mid-tier risk in Arizona

Santa Cruz ranks sixth among Arizona's 15 counties with a score of 88.33, slightly above the state average of 84.45. The county sits in Arizona's moderate-risk band, neither among the highest nor the lowest disaster-exposed areas.

Similar to Navajo, lower than Mohave

Santa Cruz's 88.33 closely mirrors Navajo County (88.07) and falls below higher-risk neighbors Mohave (94.75), Pinal (93.83), and Yavapai (93.73). The county represents a middle ground in Arizona's disaster-risk spectrum.

Wildfire and flood lead the hazards

Wildfire risk stands at 98.06 and flood risk at 87.40, making these Santa Cruz's primary concerns. Earthquake risk at 43.48 is moderate, while tornado risk (8.68) and hurricane risk (17.27) remain comparatively low.

Don't skip wildfire and flood coverage

Wildfire and flood damage are nearly always excluded from standard homeowners policies; Santa Cruz residents must purchase separate coverage. Even in a moderate-risk county, these specific protections are non-negotiable given the 98.06 wildfire score.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Santa Cruz County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    WildfirePrepare
    98th percentile
  2. #2
    FloodPrepare
    87th percentile
  3. #3
    EarthquakePrepare
    43th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Santa Cruz County

Risk Verdict

Santa Cruz County registers a moderately elevated natural disaster risk, ranking at the 88th percentile across all U.S. counties. High composite risk signals that multiple hazard types are elevated simultaneously; planning for more than one scenario is important in Santa Cruz County.

Hazard Breakdown

Wildfire risk is Santa Cruz County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 98th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Flood ranks second at the 87th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include earthquake (43th percentile), hurricane (17th percentile), tornado (9th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Wildfire ranks as Santa Cruz County's primary hazard at the 98th percentile nationally. For Santa Cruz County households in high-WUI areas, go-bag readiness — the ability to leave within 15 minutes — is more important than shelter-in-place planning for most residential properties. Alongside wildfire, flood at the 87th percentile nationally means a multi-season preparedness mindset — fire season and flood or storm season often require different household plans. Santa Cruz County county's local emergency management office publishes community-specific wildfire risk assessments and evacuation zone maps; households should review their zone assignment and sign up for zone-specific alerts.

Regional Context

At 3.9 points from the Arizona county mean, Santa Cruz County's overall disaster risk profile is close to typical for this state, with no dramatic deviation in either direction.

Is your household prepared for Santa Cruz County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Santa Cruz County, AZ?
Santa Cruz County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Moderate, placing it in the 88th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Santa Cruz County?
Santa Cruz County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: wildfire (98th percentile), flooding (87th percentile), earthquake (43th percentile), hurricane (17th percentile), tornado (9th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is wildfire at the 98th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Santa Cruz County risk compare to the Arizona average?
Santa Cruz County's composite risk percentile is 88th, compared to the Arizona state average of 85th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Moderate. This means Santa Cruz County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Arizona.
Is Santa Cruz County at risk for wildfire?
Yes, Santa Cruz County's wildfire risk is at the 98th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Santa Cruz County is at the 87th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Santa Cruz County higher risk than average?
Santa Cruz County's composite risk score of 88th percentile is above the Arizona state average of 85th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by wildfire exposure (98th percentile), along with flooding risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.