riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Carroll County Disaster Risk

Carroll County, Arkansas

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Low

National Percentile

65th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#30

of 75 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

65th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 65% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 65% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 80% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 70% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 50% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Carroll County, Arkansas

Carroll County's moderate national position

Carroll County's composite risk score of 64.57 exceeds national averages, placing it in a relatively low but above-average risk category. The county faces meaningful exposure to several disaster types.

Above average across Arkansas

Carroll County's 64.57 exceeds the state average of 55.51, ranking it among Arkansas's higher-risk counties. This elevation reflects the county's Ozark geography and associated hazards.

Riskier than Boone, safer than Baxter

Carroll County's 64.57 sits between Boone County's 62.34 and Baxter County's 72.30, representing the mid-range of northern Arkansas risk levels. Its northern Ozark location creates exposure similar to neighboring counties.

Tornado and flood lead threats

Tornado risk of 80.09 is Carroll County's most significant hazard, with severe spring storms a recurring threat. Flood risk of 65.11 ranks nearly equal, with river systems and seasonal precipitation creating water-related dangers.

Storm and flood preparedness critical

Develop a tornado shelter plan and ensure homeowners insurance covers wind damage, as tornado risk of 80.09 demands serious preparation. Assess flood risk on your specific property and consider flood insurance if you're in a vulnerable area.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Carroll County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    TornadoPrepare
    80th percentile
  2. #2
    EarthquakePrepare
    70th percentile
  3. #3
    FloodPrepare
    65th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Carroll County

Risk Verdict

Natural hazard pressure in Carroll County is below the national midpoint, with a composite score at the 65th percentile. Proactive emergency planning and awareness of the specific hazards driving Carroll County's score can meaningfully reduce household risk.

Hazard Breakdown

Tornado risk is Carroll County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 80th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Earthquake ranks second at the 70th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include flood (65th percentile), wildfire (65th percentile), hurricane (50th percentile).

Preparedness Context

With tornado ranked at the 80th percentile nationally, Carroll County sits in a high-exposure zone where the difference between outcomes often comes down to proximity to a reinforced interior shelter and seconds of warning time. Earthquake is the second hazard driver for Carroll County at the 70th percentile nationally, meaning households should maintain awareness of both severe-weather and earthquake-specific warning systems. For Carroll County households, safe rooms certified to FEMA 320/361 standards offer the highest protection during a direct tornado hit; households without a safe room should locate the innermost lowest-floor room in their building and practice the route to it before storm season.

Regional Context

Carroll County is 9.1 composite risk points above the Arkansas average, indicating that residents face greater natural hazard exposure than most of their in-state neighbors.

Is your household prepared for Carroll County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Carroll County, AR?
Carroll County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low, placing it in the 65th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Carroll County?
Carroll County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: tornado (80th percentile), earthquake (70th percentile), flooding (65th percentile), wildfire (65th percentile), hurricane (50th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is tornado at the 80th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Carroll County risk compare to the Arkansas average?
Carroll County's composite risk percentile is 65th, compared to the Arkansas state average of 56th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means Carroll County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Arkansas.
Is Carroll County at risk for tornado?
Yes, Carroll County's tornado risk is at the 80th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Carroll County is at the 65th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Carroll County higher risk than average?
Carroll County's composite risk score of 65th percentile is above the Arkansas state average of 56th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by tornado exposure (80th percentile), along with earthquake and flooding and wildfire and hurricane risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.