riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

St. Francis County Disaster Risk

St. Francis County, Arkansas

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Low

National Percentile

75th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#16

of 75 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

41th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Very Low

Higher than 41% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Very Low

Higher than 27% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Relatively High

Higher than 96% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Moderate

Higher than 91% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 51% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in St. Francis County, Arkansas

St. Francis County has elevated disaster risk

St. Francis County's composite risk score of 74.75 exceeds the national average, reflecting above-typical hazard exposure across multiple hazard types. The county earns a relatively low-risk designation but sits at the higher end of that category. This elevated positioning is driven by exceptional tornado and earthquake vulnerabilities.

Mid-to-high risk ranking in Arkansas

St. Francis County scores 74.75, significantly above Arkansas's state average of 55.51, placing it among the state's riskier counties. The county ranks in the upper tier of Arkansas disaster risk, with particularly acute vulnerabilities. This standing reflects exposure patterns distinct from much of the rest of the state.

Substantially riskier than regional peers

St. Francis County's score of 74.75 far exceeds neighboring Crittenden County and eastern Arkansas counties typical of the Delta region. The county faces notably higher earthquake risk (90.62) and tornado risk (96.25) than immediate neighbors. Its exceptional tornado vulnerability distinguishes it within the broader northeast Arkansas area.

Tornadoes pose exceptional threat

Tornado risk in St. Francis County reaches 96.25—among the nation's highest and representing an extraordinary severe weather threat. Earthquake risk of 90.62 is likewise exceptional, creating significant structural vulnerability concerns. Flood risk is comparatively low at 41.19, though the county's flat Delta terrain requires monitoring.

Install safe rooms and robust coverage

St. Francis County residents face the state's most severe tornado risk at 96.25, making a residential safe room or shelter essential for safety. Homeowners insurance must include comprehensive windstorm and hail coverage; additional endorsements are strongly advised. Earthquake insurance is critical given the 90.62 risk score—among the highest in Arkansas.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in St. Francis County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    TornadoPrepare
    96th percentile
  2. #2
    EarthquakePrepare
    91th percentile
  3. #3
    HurricanePrepare
    51th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: St. Francis County

Risk Verdict

St. Francis County sits below the national average for natural disaster exposure, ranking at the 75th percentile across all U.S. counties. Understanding the specific hazards behind St. Francis County's ranking helps residents prioritize where to direct emergency planning efforts.

Hazard Breakdown

Tornado risk is St. Francis County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 96th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Earthquake ranks second at the 91th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include hurricane (51th percentile), flood (41th percentile), wildfire (27th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Ranked at the 96th percentile nationally for tornado risk, St. Francis County is in a zone where storm shelters have the highest per-dollar protective value of any mitigation investment. St. Francis County's county shelter map is typically available through the local emergency management office. Earthquake is the second hazard driver for St. Francis County at the 91th percentile nationally, meaning households should maintain awareness of both severe-weather and earthquake-specific warning systems. St. Francis County residents can check the county's emergency management website for community shelter locations nearest their address — a step worth completing now, not during a warning.

Regional Context

A composite score 19.2 points above the Arkansas state average puts St. Francis County in a higher-risk category than most counties in the state.

Is your household prepared for St. Francis County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in St. Francis County, AR?
St. Francis County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low, placing it in the 75th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect St. Francis County?
St. Francis County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: tornado (96th percentile), earthquake (91th percentile), hurricane (51th percentile), flooding (41th percentile), wildfire (27th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is tornado at the 96th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does St. Francis County risk compare to the Arkansas average?
St. Francis County's composite risk percentile is 75th, compared to the Arkansas state average of 56th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means St. Francis County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Arkansas.
Is St. Francis County at risk for tornado?
Yes, St. Francis County's tornado risk is at the 96th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, St. Francis County is at the 41th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is St. Francis County higher risk than average?
St. Francis County's composite risk score of 75th percentile is above the Arkansas state average of 56th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by tornado exposure (96th percentile), along with earthquake and hurricane risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.