riskbycounty
FEMA National Risk Index

Merced County Disaster Risk

Merced County, California

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively High

National Percentile

97th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#23

of 58 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

95th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively High

Higher than 95% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Moderate

Higher than 92% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 26% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively High

Higher than 99% of US counties

Risk Advisory: Merced County

Risk Verdict

Merced County carries a relatively high overall disaster risk profile, scoring in the 97th percentile nationally. This places it among the most at-risk counties in the United States. Residents should prioritize comprehensive emergency preparedness, including reviewing insurance coverage and having an evacuation plan.

Hazard Breakdown

Earthquake risk is the dominant hazard for Merced County, scoring in the 99th percentile nationally. It is followed by flood risk at the 95th percentile. Additional hazards include wildfire (92th), tornado (26th).

Preparedness Context

With earthquake risk as the top concern, Merced County residents should secure heavy furniture and appliances, know how to shut off utilities, and keep emergency supplies accessible. Secondary risks such as flood also warrant attention in household and community preparedness planning. FEMA recommends all households maintain at least 72 hours of food, water, and medication supplies regardless of specific hazard exposure.

Regional Context

Merced County is significantly riskier than the average county in California. Its composite risk score is 8.1 points higher than the state average, meaning residents face above-average exposure to natural hazards compared to their neighbors.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Merced County, CA?
Merced County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively High, placing it in the 97th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Merced County?
Merced County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: earthquake (99th percentile), flooding (95th percentile), wildfire (92th percentile), tornado (26th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is earthquake at the 99th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Merced County risk compare to the California average?
Merced County's composite risk percentile is 97th, compared to the California state average of 89th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Moderate. This means Merced County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in California.
Is Merced County at risk for earthquake?
Yes, Merced County's earthquake risk is at the 99th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Merced County is at the 95th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Merced County higher risk than average?
Merced County's composite risk score of 97th percentile is above the California state average of 89th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by earthquake exposure (99th percentile), along with flooding and wildfire risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.

Counties with Similar Risk

Stanislaus County

California

+0.0

Relatively High

97th percentile

Humboldt County

California

-0.1

Relatively High

97th percentile

Solano County

California

+0.2

Relatively High

97th percentile

By Logan Johnson, Founder & Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Logan Johnson, Founder & Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.

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