riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Merced County Disaster Risk

Merced County, California

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively High

National Percentile

97th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#23

of 58 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

95th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively High

Higher than 95% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Moderate

Higher than 92% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 26% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively High

Higher than 99% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Merced County, California

Merced faces very high composite risk

Merced County scores 96.9 on the composite risk scale, earning a "Relatively High" rating that substantially exceeds California's state average of 88.7. This Central Valley county faces considerable exposure across multiple natural disaster categories.

Third highest risk in California

Merced County ranks 3rd in composite disaster risk among California's 58 counties, surpassed only by Los Angeles and Madera. The county's position reflects extreme vulnerability to earthquakes, wildfires, floods, and even tornadoes.

Highest risk in the Central Valley

Merced County's 96.9 risk score dramatically exceeds other Central Valley counties, reflecting its unique combination of seismic activity, wildfire exposure, and tornado risk (26.2—the state's highest). Its geography creates multi-directional vulnerability.

Earthquake, wildfire, and tornado threats

Merced County faces serious earthquake risk (98.5 out of 100), high wildfire risk (92.2), and the state's highest tornado risk (26.2). Flood risk (94.7) adds a fourth significant natural disaster concern for county residents.

Comprehensive multi-hazard coverage needed

Merced County residents must secure earthquake insurance, dedicated wildfire coverage, and flood insurance to address the county's multi-directional natural disaster exposure. Consider tornado insurance options and establish detailed emergency plans for all four major hazard types.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Merced County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    EarthquakePrepare
    99th percentile
  2. #2
    FloodPrepare
    95th percentile
  3. #3
    WildfirePrepare
    92th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Merced County

Risk Verdict

Natural hazard exposure in Merced County is notably high, placing it at the 97th percentile among all U.S. counties. Merced County's elevated composite score reflects cumulative multi-hazard exposure; households should prepare for the county's two or three primary hazard types.

Hazard Breakdown

Earthquake risk is Merced County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 99th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Flood ranks second at the 95th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include wildfire (92th percentile), tornado (26th percentile).

Preparedness Context

At the 99th percentile nationally for earthquake risk, Merced County is in a zone where a post-earthquake communications plan matters almost as much as pre-earthquake structural preparation — phone networks are typically congested for hours after a significant event. Flood at the 95th percentile nationally is a separate hazard dimension for Merced County that requires different protective strategies from earthquake preparedness. For Merced County households, the three highest-impact earthquake preparedness actions are: (1) anchor heavy furniture and water heaters, (2) store three days of water at one gallon per person per day, and (3) identify a family reunification plan for the post-quake communication blackout period.

Regional Context

A composite score 8.1 points above the California state average puts Merced County in a higher-risk category than most counties in the state.

Is your household prepared for Merced County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Merced County, CA?
Merced County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively High, placing it in the 97th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Merced County?
Merced County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: earthquake (99th percentile), flooding (95th percentile), wildfire (92th percentile), tornado (26th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is earthquake at the 99th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Merced County risk compare to the California average?
Merced County's composite risk percentile is 97th, compared to the California state average of 89th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Moderate. This means Merced County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in California.
Is Merced County at risk for earthquake?
Yes, Merced County's earthquake risk is at the 99th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Merced County is at the 95th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Merced County higher risk than average?
Merced County's composite risk score of 97th percentile is above the California state average of 89th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by earthquake exposure (99th percentile), along with flooding and wildfire risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.