riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Duval County Disaster Risk

Duval County, Florida

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively High

National Percentile

97th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#12

of 67 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

98th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively High

Higher than 98% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Moderate

Higher than 90% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Moderate

Higher than 92% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Moderate

Higher than 90% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Relatively High

Higher than 98% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Duval County, Florida

Duval ranks among nation's riskiest

Duval County's composite risk score of 97.20 places it in the "Relatively High" category and among the most hazard-exposed counties in America. This elevated profile reflects its Atlantic location, dense urban development in Jacksonville, and exposure to multiple simultaneous disaster types including hurricanes (97.66), flooding (97.55), and tornadoes (91.54).

Second-riskiest county in Florida

At 97.20, Duval County significantly exceeds Florida's state average of 75.74 and ranks as one of the state's two or three highest-risk jurisdictions. The county's Atlantic Coast position, major port infrastructure, and extensive urban footprint create compounded vulnerability to multiple disaster types.

Extreme risk even among Gulf peers

Duval County (97.20) substantially exceeds nearby Clay County (81.08) and approaches or exceeds the state's riskiest coastal counties including Collier (98.92) and Escambia (95.10). As the urban anchor of Northeast Florida, Duval concentrates both population exposure and infrastructure at risk.

Hurricanes, floods, and tornadoes converge

Hurricane risk scores 97.66, flood risk 97.55, and tornado risk 91.54—a devastating combination that threatens the Jacksonville metropolitan area from multiple directions. Storm surge, inland flooding, and severe thunderstorms create compounded seasonal hazards for this densely populated Atlantic County.

Comprehensive multi-hazard insurance critical

With a 97.66 hurricane score and 97.55 flood score, robust homeowners insurance covering wind, hail, and impact damage plus separate flood insurance are non-negotiable for Duval residents. Impact-resistant windows, reinforced roofs, and storm shutters provide practical protection; those in flood-prone neighborhoods should prioritize elevation or relocation if feasible.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Duval County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    HurricanePrepare
    98th percentile
  2. #2
    FloodPrepare
    98th percentile
  3. #3
    TornadoPrepare
    92th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Duval County

Risk Verdict

With a national rank of 97th percentile, Duval County faces above-average natural disaster pressure across several hazard categories. High composite risk signals that multiple hazard types are elevated simultaneously; planning for more than one scenario is important in Duval County.

Hazard Breakdown

Hurricane risk is Duval County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 98th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Flood ranks second at the 98th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include tornado (92th percentile), earthquake (90th percentile), wildfire (90th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Duval County's primary hazard, hurricane, ranks at the 98th percentile nationally. Having a designated out-of-area contact, a pre-packed go-bag with medications and documents, and a confirmed evacuation route reduces decision-making load when a storm intensifies rapidly. Duval County's flood exposure at the 98th percentile nationally adds a hazard layer that can persist or intensify after hurricane-force winds have passed, particularly in low-lying inland areas. The National Hurricane Center's official forecast cone and local NWS office watches and warnings are the authoritative sources for Duval County storm tracking; households benefit from bookmarking these before storm season rather than relying on social media during an event.

Regional Context

Duval County falls 21.5 points above Florida's typical county risk level, which means the hazard environment here is notably more demanding than the state baseline.

Is your household prepared for Duval County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Duval County, FL?
Duval County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively High, placing it in the 97th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Duval County?
Duval County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: hurricane (98th percentile), flooding (98th percentile), tornado (92th percentile), earthquake (90th percentile), wildfire (90th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is hurricane at the 98th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Duval County risk compare to the Florida average?
Duval County's composite risk percentile is 97th, compared to the Florida state average of 76th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means Duval County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Florida.
Is Duval County at risk for hurricane?
Yes, Duval County's hurricane risk is at the 98th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Duval County is at the 98th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Duval County higher risk than average?
Duval County's composite risk score of 97th percentile is above the Florida state average of 76th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by hurricane exposure (98th percentile), along with flooding and tornado and earthquake and wildfire risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.