riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Shelby County Disaster Risk

Shelby County, Illinois

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Low

National Percentile

52th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#56

of 102 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

48th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 48% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Very Low

Higher than 13% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 40% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 79% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Very Low

Higher than 41% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Shelby County, Illinois

Shelby maintains relatively low risk

Shelby County scores 51.75 on the composite risk scale, earning a Relatively Low rating and sitting just below Illinois's state average of 54.46. The county experiences moderate exposure to several hazard types, particularly earthquakes and flooding, requiring basic disaster preparedness.

Below-average risk statewide

Shelby ranks in the safer half of Illinois counties, with its 51.75 score beating approximately 50% of the state's peers. The county avoids the extreme risk profiles seen in St. Clair and Sangamon counties while maintaining vigilance across multiple hazard types.

Safer than Sangamon region

Shelby's 51.75 score is substantially lower than nearby Sangamon County (91.70), placing it in a much safer risk category for central Illinois. The county represents a middle ground between the very-low-risk northwest counties and the higher-risk south-central and southwestern regions.

Earthquakes and floods are primary concerns

Shelby's earthquake risk of 78.66 is notably elevated, while flood risk at 48.35 represents the second-largest threat in the county. Tornado risk of 39.76 remains moderate, while wildfire and hurricane risks are minimal below 13 and 41 respectively.

Address flood and earthquake coverage

Shelby County residents should obtain flood insurance through the NFIP, particularly if located in mapped flood zones or near drainages. Consider earthquake insurance given the elevated seismic risk, and maintain basic tornado preparedness including a safe room and emergency supply kit.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Shelby County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    EarthquakePrepare
    79th percentile
  2. #2
    FloodPrepare
    48th percentile
  3. #3
    HurricanePrepare
    41th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Shelby County

Risk Verdict

Shelby County ranks at the 52th percentile nationally for natural disaster risk — below the median for U.S. counties. Residents are encouraged to understand which hazards dominate locally and tailor their preparedness accordingly.

Hazard Breakdown

Earthquake risk is Shelby County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 79th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Flood ranks second at the 48th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include hurricane (41th percentile), tornado (40th percentile), wildfire (13th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Shelby County ranks at the 79th percentile nationally for earthquake risk. Unlike most natural hazards, earthquakes provide no advance warning; preparedness here means structural adjustments and a practiced response, not alert monitoring. The county's flood risk at the 48th percentile nationally is a seasonal consideration alongside the year-round earthquake threat, requiring awareness of both hazard types. For earthquake preparedness, Shelby County's county emergency management office often maintains a list of community water supply points, Red Cross shelter locations, and post-quake assistance programs — useful resources to identify before an event occurs.

Regional Context

The county's composite score diverges by only 2.7 points from the Illinois average, making Shelby County's hazard profile broadly typical for this part of the state.

Is your household prepared for Shelby County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Shelby County, IL?
Shelby County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low, placing it in the 52th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Shelby County?
Shelby County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: earthquake (79th percentile), flooding (48th percentile), hurricane (41th percentile), tornado (40th percentile), wildfire (13th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is earthquake at the 79th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Shelby County risk compare to the Illinois average?
Shelby County's composite risk percentile is 52th, compared to the Illinois state average of 55th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means Shelby County faces lower natural disaster risk than the typical county in Illinois.
Is Shelby County at risk for earthquake?
Yes, Shelby County's earthquake risk is at the 79th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Shelby County is at the 48th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Is Shelby County a safe place to live?
Shelby County's composite risk score of 52th percentile is below the Illinois state average of 55th percentile, indicating relatively lower exposure to natural hazards. However, no county is completely risk-free. The primary hazard type is earthquake at the 79th percentile. Residents should still maintain emergency preparedness plans and appropriate insurance coverage.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.