riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Carroll County Disaster Risk

Carroll County, Missouri

FEMA Risk Rating

Very Low

National Percentile

33th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#79

of 115 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

45th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 45% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 44% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 57% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Very Low

Higher than 36% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Very Low

Higher than 0% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Carroll County, Missouri

Carroll County's low risk rating

With a composite risk score of 32.60, Carroll County ranks as Very Low risk nationally—well below the state average of 50.56. This protective position reflects generally modest exposure to major natural hazards across the county.

Missouri's safest counties

Carroll County is among Missouri's lowest-risk counties, scoring significantly below the state average. The county's balanced hazard profile means residents face less frequent and intense disaster threats than most Missourians.

Safer than most neighbors

Carroll County's 32.60 score beats nearby Chariton County (29.42) and Cedar County (26.05), making it a stable middle ground in a relatively safe region. Its tornado risk of 56.84 is notably higher than flood risk (45.39), reflecting regional weather patterns.

Tornado risk leads the list

Tornadoes pose the greatest threat with a risk score of 56.84, while flooding (45.39) and wildfire (43.86) present secondary concerns. Spring and early summer bring the highest tornado likelihood, making severe weather preparedness essential for residents.

Focus on tornado coverage

Standard homeowners insurance covers some wind damage but may exclude severe tornado losses—consider adding guaranteed replacement cost endorsements. Review your safe room options and maintain a family disaster plan, especially during tornado season.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Carroll County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    TornadoPrepare
    57th percentile
  2. #2
    FloodPrepare
    45th percentile
  3. #3
    WildfirePrepare
    44th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Carroll County

Risk Verdict

Compared to the nation's 3,144 counties, Carroll County ranks at the 33th percentile for natural disaster risk — toward the safer end of the spectrum. Even at the 33th percentile, Carroll County's composite score reflects real hazard exposure categories — knowing which ones apply locally enables targeted, efficient household preparedness.

Hazard Breakdown

Tornado risk is Carroll County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 57th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Flood ranks second at the 45th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include wildfire (44th percentile), earthquake (36th percentile), hurricane (0th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Tornado exposure at the 57th percentile nationally makes Carroll County a county where a battery-powered weather radio — not just smartphone apps — is a worthwhile household investment, given that mobile networks often fail during severe storms. Flood is the second hazard driver for Carroll County at the 45th percentile nationally, meaning households should maintain awareness of both severe-weather and flood-specific warning systems. In Carroll County, tornado watches indicate favorable atmospheric conditions while warnings mean rotation has been detected — households benefit from understanding this distinction so they shelter immediately on a warning, not after seeking visual confirmation.

Regional Context

At 18.0 points below the Missouri state average, Carroll County is among the lower-risk counties in the state for natural disaster exposure.

Is your household prepared for Carroll County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Carroll County, MO?
Carroll County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low, placing it in the 33th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Carroll County?
Carroll County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: tornado (57th percentile), flooding (45th percentile), wildfire (44th percentile), earthquake (36th percentile), hurricane (0th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is tornado at the 57th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Carroll County risk compare to the Missouri average?
Carroll County's composite risk percentile is 33th, compared to the Missouri state average of 51th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means Carroll County faces lower natural disaster risk than the typical county in Missouri.
Is Carroll County at risk for tornado?
Yes, Carroll County's tornado risk is at the 57th percentile nationally. This is above the national median. For flooding specifically, Carroll County is at the 45th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Is Carroll County a safe place to live?
Carroll County's composite risk score of 33th percentile is below the Missouri state average of 51th percentile, indicating relatively lower exposure to natural hazards. However, no county is completely risk-free. The primary hazard type is tornado at the 57th percentile. Residents should still maintain emergency preparedness plans and appropriate insurance coverage.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.