riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Jefferson County Disaster Risk

Jefferson County, Montana

FEMA Risk Rating

Very Low

National Percentile

22th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#30

of 56 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

29th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Very Low

Higher than 29% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Moderate

Higher than 89% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 6% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 65% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Jefferson County, Montana

Jefferson faces moderate disaster risk

Jefferson County's composite risk score of 21.56 is above the national average and places it in the very low risk category. Your county experiences moderate natural hazard exposure, with earthquake and wildfire contributing most significantly.

Below-average risk within Montana

At 21.56, Jefferson County scores below Montana's state average of 33.31, making it one of the safer counties in the state. Your county experiences less overall natural disaster risk than typical Montana communities.

Safer than Glacier but riskier than Granite

Jefferson's score of 21.56 is lower than Glacier (51.49) but higher than Granite (9.38) and Golden Valley (0.99). Your county sits in the moderate range for southwestern Montana.

Wildfire and earthquakes dominate

Wildfire risk (89.06) and earthquake risk (64.82) are your county's primary hazards, together driving most of your composite score. Flood (29.42) and tornado (5.66) risks remain secondary but still notable.

Prioritize earthquake and wildfire coverage

Confirm your homeowner's policy covers both wildfire and earthquake damage, as these are your leading risks. Earthquake insurance is often available as a rider—ask your agent about coverage options for your property.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Jefferson County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    WildfirePrepare
    89th percentile
  2. #2
    EarthquakePrepare
    65th percentile
  3. #3
    FloodPrepare
    29th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Local Resources

Risk Advisory: Jefferson County

Risk Verdict

Natural disaster exposure in Jefferson County is lower than roughly three-quarters of U.S. counties, with a composite score at the 22th percentile. Residents of Jefferson County can use the 22th percentile ranking as a baseline, while recognizing that individual properties may still lie in specific hazard zones that differ from the county average.

Hazard Breakdown

Wildfire risk is Jefferson County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 89th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Earthquake ranks second at the 65th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include flood (29th percentile), tornado (6th percentile).

Preparedness Context

At the 89th percentile nationally for wildfire, Jefferson County residents should verify whether their insurance policy includes replacement cost coverage for structures and whether the insurer still writes new policies in this fire-risk zone. The county's earthquake exposure at the 65th percentile nationally complements the wildfire risk — saturating rain after burn scarring often triggers secondary flood and debris flow events. Local USFS or Cal Fire (where applicable) fire risk maps and seasonal Red Flag Warning alerts from the National Weather Service are two free resources Jefferson County residents can use to stay ahead of rapidly changing wildfire conditions.

Regional Context

Jefferson County is 11.7 composite risk points below the Montana state mean, meaning most other Montana counties face higher natural hazard exposure.

Is your household prepared for Jefferson County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Jefferson County, MT?
Jefferson County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low, placing it in the 22th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Jefferson County?
Jefferson County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: wildfire (89th percentile), earthquake (65th percentile), flooding (29th percentile), tornado (6th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is wildfire at the 89th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Jefferson County risk compare to the Montana average?
Jefferson County's composite risk percentile is 22th, compared to the Montana state average of 33th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Very Low. This means Jefferson County faces lower natural disaster risk than the typical county in Montana.
Is Jefferson County at risk for wildfire?
Yes, Jefferson County's wildfire risk is at the 89th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Jefferson County is at the 29th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Is Jefferson County a safe place to live?
Jefferson County's composite risk score of 22th percentile is below the Montana state average of 33th percentile, indicating relatively lower exposure to natural hazards. However, no county is completely risk-free. The primary hazard type is wildfire at the 89th percentile. Residents should still maintain emergency preparedness plans and appropriate insurance coverage.

Counties with Similar Risk

Teton County

Montana

-2.5

Very Low

19th percentile

Pondera County

Montana

+3.1

Very Low

25th percentile

Broadwater County

Montana

-3.9

Very Low

18th percentile

By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.

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