riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Madison County Disaster Risk

Madison County, Montana

FEMA Risk Rating

Very Low

National Percentile

41th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#24

of 56 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

30th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Very Low

Higher than 30% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Moderate

Higher than 87% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 4% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 80% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Madison County, Montana

Madison County shows moderate risk profile

With a composite risk score of 41.03, Madison County ranks in the very low category and slightly exceeds Montana's state average of 33.31. The county's risk stems primarily from wildfire and earthquake exposure rather than multiple concurrent hazards.

Middle of the pack for Montana

Madison County's score of 41.03 sits modestly above the Montana state average of 33.31, placing it in the middle range of the state's 56 counties. This positions residents in a more typical risk zone compared to either Montana's highest or lowest-risk areas.

Safer than Lewis and Clark and Missoula

Madison County's score of 41.03 runs substantially lower than neighboring Lewis and Clark (71.25) and Missoula (77.04) but higher than Meagher (2.80). The county occupies a relative safety zone in southwestern Montana.

Wildfire and earthquake present primary threats

Wildfire risk reaches 87.34 in Madison County—well above the state norm—while earthquake risk at 79.90 reflects the county's position in a seismically active region. Flood risk scores 29.83, presenting modest but measurable exposure in some areas.

Wildfire and earthquake coverage both matter

Madison County homeowners should ensure wildfire damage coverage is explicitly included in their policy given the 87.34 risk score, and seriously consider purchasing earthquake insurance given the 79.90 exposure. Reviewing your property's specific flood risk with your insurer ensures you have appropriate protection.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Madison County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    WildfirePrepare
    87th percentile
  2. #2
    EarthquakePrepare
    80th percentile
  3. #3
    FloodPrepare
    30th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Madison County

Risk Verdict

Natural disaster exposure in Madison County is lower than roughly three-quarters of U.S. counties, with a composite score at the 41th percentile. At the 41th percentile, Madison County's risk profile is among the more manageable in the country — the hazard-specific breakdown above shows where any remaining preparedness focus is best directed.

Hazard Breakdown

Wildfire risk is Madison County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 87th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Earthquake ranks second at the 80th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include flood (30th percentile), tornado (4th percentile).

Preparedness Context

At the 87th percentile nationally for wildfire, Madison County residents should verify whether their insurance policy includes replacement cost coverage for structures and whether the insurer still writes new policies in this fire-risk zone. Alongside wildfire, earthquake at the 80th percentile nationally means a multi-season preparedness mindset — fire season and flood or storm season often require different household plans. Local USFS or Cal Fire (where applicable) fire risk maps and seasonal Red Flag Warning alerts from the National Weather Service are two free resources Madison County residents can use to stay ahead of rapidly changing wildfire conditions.

Regional Context

A composite score 7.7 points above the Montana state average puts Madison County in a higher-risk category than most counties in the state.

Is your household prepared for Madison County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Madison County, MT?
Madison County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low, placing it in the 41th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Madison County?
Madison County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: wildfire (87th percentile), earthquake (80th percentile), flooding (30th percentile), tornado (4th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is wildfire at the 87th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Madison County risk compare to the Montana average?
Madison County's composite risk percentile is 41th, compared to the Montana state average of 33th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Very Low. This means Madison County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Montana.
Is Madison County at risk for wildfire?
Yes, Madison County's wildfire risk is at the 87th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Madison County is at the 30th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Madison County higher risk than average?
Madison County's composite risk score of 41th percentile is above the Montana state average of 33th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by wildfire exposure (87th percentile), along with earthquake risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.