riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Valley County Disaster Risk

Valley County, Montana

FEMA Risk Rating

Very Low

National Percentile

36th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#27

of 56 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

34th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Very Low

Higher than 34% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 49% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 15% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Very Low

Higher than 23% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Valley County, Montana

Valley County edges above national average

Valley County's composite risk score of 35.94 with a Very Low rating slightly exceeds the typical U.S. county's natural disaster risk profile. Your exposure is driven primarily by flood risk (34.22) and moderate wildfire concerns, typical of northeastern Montana's climate patterns.

Valley ranks near Montana's midpoint

At 35.94, Valley County's composite risk exceeds Montana's state average of 33.31 by just 2.63 points, placing it slightly above the middle tier of the state's counties. This positions Valley as a moderate-risk county within Montana's broader risk landscape.

Highest risk in the immediate region

Valley's 35.94 score substantially exceeds nearby Wibaux (11.07) and Wheatland (3.50), making it notably riskier than surrounding counties. Your flood risk of 34.22 is the primary driver of this higher exposure compared to drier neighboring areas.

Flood dominates, wildfire secondary

Flood risk at 34.22 is your county's primary hazard, driven by proximity to the Missouri River and seasonal runoff patterns. Wildfire exposure at 49.46 represents your second concern, while tornado (14.63) and earthquake (23.00) risks remain moderate.

Flood insurance is essential

Your flood risk of 34.22 makes dedicated flood insurance critical—standard homeowner's policies exclude flood damage entirely. Coupled with comprehensive wildfire coverage, these two policies provide robust protection against Valley County's primary natural disaster exposures.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Valley County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    WildfirePrepare
    49th percentile
  2. #2
    FloodPrepare
    34th percentile
  3. #3
    EarthquakePrepare
    23th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Valley County

Risk Verdict

Valley County carries a low natural disaster risk burden, scoring at the 36th percentile under the FEMA National Risk Index. A 36th percentile score positions Valley County among the nation's lower-risk counties, a genuinely favorable outcome — one that simple, low-cost preparedness habits can reinforce further.

Hazard Breakdown

Wildfire risk is Valley County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 49th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Flood ranks second at the 34th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include earthquake (23th percentile), tornado (15th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Wildfire ranks as Valley County's primary hazard at the 49th percentile nationally. For Valley County households in high-WUI areas, go-bag readiness — the ability to leave within 15 minutes — is more important than shelter-in-place planning for most residential properties. Alongside wildfire, flood at the 34th percentile nationally means a multi-season preparedness mindset — fire season and flood or storm season often require different household plans. Valley County county's local emergency management office publishes community-specific wildfire risk assessments and evacuation zone maps; households should review their zone assignment and sign up for zone-specific alerts.

Regional Context

At 2.6 points from the Montana county mean, Valley County's overall disaster risk profile is close to typical for this state, with no dramatic deviation in either direction.

Is your household prepared for Valley County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Valley County, MT?
Valley County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low, placing it in the 36th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Valley County?
Valley County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: wildfire (49th percentile), flooding (34th percentile), earthquake (23th percentile), tornado (15th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is wildfire at the 49th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Valley County risk compare to the Montana average?
Valley County's composite risk percentile is 36th, compared to the Montana state average of 33th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Very Low. This means Valley County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Montana.
Is Valley County at risk for wildfire?
Yes, Valley County's wildfire risk is at the 49th percentile nationally. This is below the national median, indicating relatively lower exposure. For flooding specifically, Valley County is at the 34th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Valley County higher risk than average?
Valley County's composite risk score of 36th percentile is above the Montana state average of 33th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by wildfire exposure (49th percentile). Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.