riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

San Juan County Disaster Risk

San Juan County, New Mexico

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Moderate

National Percentile

88th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#3

of 33 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

92th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Moderate

Higher than 92% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Moderate

Higher than 82% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 23% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Moderate

Higher than 84% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in San Juan County, New Mexico

San Juan County faces highest state risk

San Juan County scores 88.30 on composite risk, earning a Relatively Moderate rating and placing it well above the national average. This is New Mexico's highest composite risk score, reflecting extreme exposure to multiple serious natural hazards.

New Mexico's most hazard-vulnerable county

San Juan County ranks at the very top of New Mexico's risk hierarchy with an 88.30 score, substantially exceeding the state average of 58.92 and surpassing all other counties in the state. The county faces the most significant multi-hazard exposure in New Mexico.

Riskier than all adjacent counties

San Juan County's 88.30 score significantly exceeds neighboring McKinley, Rio Arriba, and San Juan Basin counties. The county's northwestern location and complex geology create a perfect storm of overlapping natural hazard threats.

Flood, earthquake, and wildfire all severe

Flood risk reaches 92.40, making San Juan County one of New Mexico's most flood-prone areas with significant threats to homes and infrastructure. Earthquake risk at 83.94 and wildfire risk at 81.55 create a formidable multi-hazard environment.

Comprehensive, multi-layered protection required

San Juan County residents must secure flood insurance immediately, as standard homeowners policies exclude flood damage and the county faces extreme inundation risk. Add earthquake coverage and verify wildfire protection; consider consulting an insurance broker to ensure all major hazards are covered given the county's exceptional risk profile.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in San Juan County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    FloodPrepare
    92th percentile
  2. #2
    EarthquakePrepare
    84th percentile
  3. #3
    WildfirePrepare
    82th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: San Juan County

Risk Verdict

FEMA's National Risk Index rates San Juan County at the 88th percentile nationally — above average and worth proactive preparation. Residents should prioritize a formal household emergency plan, including evacuation routes, insurance review, and a well-stocked emergency kit.

Hazard Breakdown

Flood risk is San Juan County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 92th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Earthquake ranks second at the 84th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include wildfire (82th percentile), tornado (23th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Flood risk is San Juan County's top hazard at the 92th percentile nationally. Households in or near designated flood zones face elevated financial exposure; flood insurance typically requires a 30-day waiting period before it takes effect, so applying before the season is advisable. Secondary earthquake exposure at the 84th percentile adds a second preparedness layer; households should review coverage options and alert sign-up for both hazard types. Households across San Juan County should identify the nearest community shelter and keep a basic emergency kit — water, non-perishable food, medications, flashlight, and battery radio — in a location easy to grab quickly.

Regional Context

San Juan County is 29.4 composite risk points above the New Mexico average, indicating that residents face greater natural hazard exposure than most of their in-state neighbors.

Is your household prepared for San Juan County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in San Juan County, NM?
San Juan County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Moderate, placing it in the 88th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect San Juan County?
San Juan County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: flooding (92th percentile), earthquake (84th percentile), wildfire (82th percentile), tornado (23th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is flooding at the 92th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does San Juan County risk compare to the New Mexico average?
San Juan County's composite risk percentile is 88th, compared to the New Mexico state average of 59th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means San Juan County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in New Mexico.
Is San Juan County at risk for flooding?
Yes, San Juan County's flooding risk is at the 92th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is San Juan County higher risk than average?
San Juan County's composite risk score of 88th percentile is above the New Mexico state average of 59th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by flooding exposure (92th percentile), along with earthquake and wildfire risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.