riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Durham County Disaster Risk

Durham County, North Carolina

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Moderate

National Percentile

90th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#14

of 100 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

92th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Moderate

Higher than 92% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Very Low

Higher than 34% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Moderate

Higher than 93% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Moderate

Higher than 82% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Moderate

Higher than 89% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Durham County, North Carolina

Durham ranks among highest-risk U.S. counties

Durham County's composite score of 89.63 far exceeds the national average of 50, reflecting intense exposure to multiple simultaneous hazards. The "Relatively Moderate" rating belies the county's extreme vulnerability to tornadoes and flooding—individual hazards that rival the worst in the nation.

Third-highest overall risk in North Carolina

Durham's 89.63 score ranks it among the state's most disaster-exposed counties, trailing only Craven (93.58) and Dare (89.60) among North Carolina's 100. The county sits more than 20 points above the state average of 66.72.

Durham's risk rivals state's highest-risk counties

Durham (89.63) closely matches Dare County (89.60) and nearly equals Craven County (93.58) in composite score, while far exceeding lower-risk Piedmont counties like Davie (41.67). The county's Piedmont location gives it higher tornado exposure than coastal peers, offsetting their hurricane advantage.

Tornadoes and floods dominate Durham's threats

Tornado risk at 93.48—among the highest in the nation—makes Durham one of America's most tornado-prone urban areas, while flood risk at 92.43 reflects the county's river systems and intense rainfall vulnerability. Earthquake risk at 81.87 adds a regional seismic component that elevates Durham above most Piedmont counties.

Storm shelter and flood insurance non-negotiable

Durham residents must prioritize a designated storm shelter—whether a basement safe room or reinforced interior space—to protect against extreme tornado exposure. Flood insurance is essential for properties in or near identified flood zones; all residents should maintain robust homeowners coverage and a practiced evacuation plan.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Durham County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    TornadoPrepare
    93th percentile
  2. #2
    FloodPrepare
    92th percentile
  3. #3
    HurricanePrepare
    89th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Durham County

Risk Verdict

Durham County registers a moderately elevated natural disaster risk, ranking at the 90th percentile across all U.S. counties. High composite risk signals that multiple hazard types are elevated simultaneously; planning for more than one scenario is important in Durham County.

Hazard Breakdown

Tornado risk is Durham County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 93th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Flood ranks second at the 92th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include hurricane (89th percentile), earthquake (82th percentile), wildfire (34th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Durham County's primary hazard, tornado, ranks at the 93th percentile nationally. In Durham County, mobile homes and manufactured housing face significantly higher tornado risk than site-built structures; residents in these homes should identify the nearest permanent community shelter in advance. Alongside tornado exposure, flood at the 92th percentile nationally means Durham County households face multi-hazard severe-weather seasons that benefit from a single integrated emergency plan covering both threats. The highest-risk window for tornado fatalities is overnight, when Durham County residents may be asleep. A NOAA weather radio with overnight alert capability is the single most impactful low-cost preparedness step available to Durham County households.

Regional Context

Durham County falls 22.9 points above North Carolina's typical county risk level, which means the hazard environment here is notably more demanding than the state baseline.

Is your household prepared for Durham County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Durham County, NC?
Durham County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Moderate, placing it in the 90th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Durham County?
Durham County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: tornado (93th percentile), flooding (92th percentile), hurricane (89th percentile), earthquake (82th percentile), wildfire (34th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is tornado at the 93th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Durham County risk compare to the North Carolina average?
Durham County's composite risk percentile is 90th, compared to the North Carolina state average of 67th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means Durham County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in North Carolina.
Is Durham County at risk for tornado?
Yes, Durham County's tornado risk is at the 93th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Durham County is at the 92th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Durham County higher risk than average?
Durham County's composite risk score of 90th percentile is above the North Carolina state average of 67th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by tornado exposure (93th percentile), along with flooding and hurricane and earthquake risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.