riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Forsyth County Disaster Risk

Forsyth County, North Carolina

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Moderate

National Percentile

92th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#9

of 100 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

95th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively High

Higher than 95% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Very Low

Higher than 36% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Moderate

Higher than 91% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Moderate

Higher than 88% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Moderate

Higher than 86% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Forsyth County, North Carolina

Forsyth faces notably elevated disaster risks

Forsyth County's composite risk score of 91.54 places it in the highest tier of risk exposure, substantially above the U.S. average and the North Carolina state average of 66.72. This "Relatively Moderate" rating reflects the county's vulnerability across multiple hazard types, particularly flooding and tornadoes. Forsyth residents confront a complex natural disaster landscape that demands serious preparedness investment.

Forsyth ranks among North Carolina's riskiest

With a composite score of 91.54, Forsyth County ranks in North Carolina's top tier for overall disaster risk—significantly above the state average of 66.72. The county's elevated scores across floods (94.66), tornadoes (90.87), and earthquakes (88.07) reflect its Piedmont location and susceptibility to multiple concurrent hazards. Few North Carolina counties face as broad and intense a risk profile.

Forsyth faces steeper risks than peers

Forsyth's composite score of 91.54 substantially exceeds neighboring Guilford County and Stokes County, making it the highest-risk county in the Triad region. Its flood risk of 94.66 ranks among the most severe in the state, while tornado exposure at 90.87 surpasses most surrounding counties. This elevated exposure positions Forsyth as a natural disaster hotspot within its region.

Floods, tornadoes, and earthquakes drive risk

Forsyth County's most pressing threats come from flooding (94.66)—highest in the county's risk profile—followed closely by tornadoes (90.87) and earthquakes (88.07). The county's location in the Piedmont makes it vulnerable to both sudden flash flooding from heavy rains and the seismic activity that occasionally affects the region. Together, these three hazards account for the majority of natural disaster damage potential.

Triple-layer insurance is essential

Forsyth County's extreme flood risk (94.66) makes flood insurance non-negotiable—standard homeowners policies exclude flood damage entirely, leaving most properties dangerously underinsured. Combine a comprehensive homeowners policy with flood insurance from the National Flood Insurance Program and consider earthquake coverage, which requires a separate policy rider. Speak with your insurance agent immediately to ensure your home's protection matches Forsyth's elevated risks.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Forsyth County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    FloodPrepare
    95th percentile
  2. #2
    TornadoPrepare
    91th percentile
  3. #3
    EarthquakePrepare
    88th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Forsyth County

Risk Verdict

Forsyth County's overall risk score at the 92th percentile nationally signals meaningful exposure to multiple natural hazard types. Comprehensive household preparedness — including reviewing insurance, maintaining emergency supplies, and knowing evacuation routes — is strongly recommended.

Hazard Breakdown

Flood risk is Forsyth County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 95th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Tornado ranks second at the 91th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include earthquake (88th percentile), hurricane (86th percentile), wildfire (36th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Forsyth County sits at the 95th percentile nationally for flood exposure. Knowing your property's flood zone designation — available at FEMA's Flood Map Service Center — is the first step toward understanding actual exposure and insurance options. Secondary tornado exposure at the 91th percentile adds a second preparedness layer; households should review coverage options and alert sign-up for both hazard types. Regardless of specific hazard, Forsyth County households benefit from a practiced communication plan: a designated out-of-state contact and a pre-agreed evacuation destination established before the season's peak risk period.

Regional Context

Compared to other North Carolina counties, Forsyth County runs 24.8 composite risk points higher than the state mean — reflecting above-average hazard concentration in this area.

Is your household prepared for Forsyth County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Forsyth County, NC?
Forsyth County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Moderate, placing it in the 92th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Forsyth County?
Forsyth County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: flooding (95th percentile), tornado (91th percentile), earthquake (88th percentile), hurricane (86th percentile), wildfire (36th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is flooding at the 95th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Forsyth County risk compare to the North Carolina average?
Forsyth County's composite risk percentile is 92th, compared to the North Carolina state average of 67th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means Forsyth County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in North Carolina.
Is Forsyth County at risk for flooding?
Yes, Forsyth County's flooding risk is at the 95th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Forsyth County higher risk than average?
Forsyth County's composite risk score of 92th percentile is above the North Carolina state average of 67th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by flooding exposure (95th percentile), along with tornado and earthquake and hurricane risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.