riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Orange County Disaster Risk

Orange County, North Carolina

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Low

National Percentile

79th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#37

of 100 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

86th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Moderate

Higher than 86% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Very Low

Higher than 28% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Moderate

Higher than 81% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 65% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Moderate

Higher than 82% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Orange County, North Carolina

Orange County's risk is moderate nationally

Orange County's composite risk score of 79.07 and 'Relatively Low' rating position it below many U.S. counties in overall natural disaster hazard. However, localized flood and tornado risks merit attention from homeowners and planners.

Moderate risk within North Carolina

At 79.07, Orange County exceeds the state average of 66.72, reflecting its Piedmont location and exposure to river flooding and severe thunderstorms. Inland geography spares it from hurricane storm surge but not from the inland impacts of tropical systems.

Riskier than many Piedmont neighbors

Orange County (79.07) carries higher total risk than many surrounding Piedmont counties, driven primarily by its flood risk of 85.53. However, its wildfire risk of 28.44 is significantly lower than coastal counties to the east.

Flooding and tornadoes dominate the hazard profile

Orange County's flood risk of 85.53 is among the highest in the state, reflecting rivers and streams that swell during heavy rains and tropical system remnants. Tornado risk of 81.46 reflects springtime severe weather typical of the Piedmont region.

Prioritize flood protection and weather awareness

Orange County residents, especially those in flood-prone areas near streams and rivers, should obtain flood insurance if in a Special Flood Hazard Area. Maintain a severe weather kit, sign up for emergency alerts, and identify a safe interior room for tornado shelter.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Orange County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    FloodPrepare
    86th percentile
  2. #2
    HurricanePrepare
    82th percentile
  3. #3
    TornadoPrepare
    81th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Orange County

Risk Verdict

Orange County has a below-average natural disaster risk profile, scoring at the 79th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. This risk level calls for more than general awareness: insurance coverage review, a family communication plan, and a prepared go-bag are practical priorities.

Hazard Breakdown

Flood risk is Orange County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 86th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Hurricane ranks second at the 82th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include tornado (81th percentile), earthquake (65th percentile), wildfire (28th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Orange County's top natural hazard is flood risk, ranked at the 86th percentile nationally. Homeowners here should confirm whether they are in a FEMA-designated flood zone and check if standard homeowners insurance covers flood damage — it typically does not. The county's second-ranked hazard, hurricane at the 82th percentile nationally, means Orange County residents face compounding risks from multiple natural hazard types during peak seasons. For most Orange County households, the highest-return preparedness step is storing critical documents in digital cloud backup combined with a pre-designated family meeting point if communication is disrupted.

Regional Context

Orange County's composite risk score sits 12.3 points above the North Carolina county average, placing it among the more hazard-exposed counties in the state.

Is your household prepared for Orange County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Orange County, NC?
Orange County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low, placing it in the 79th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Orange County?
Orange County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: flooding (86th percentile), hurricane (82th percentile), tornado (81th percentile), earthquake (65th percentile), wildfire (28th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is flooding at the 86th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Orange County risk compare to the North Carolina average?
Orange County's composite risk percentile is 79th, compared to the North Carolina state average of 67th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means Orange County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in North Carolina.
Is Orange County at risk for flooding?
Yes, Orange County's flooding risk is at the 86th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Orange County higher risk than average?
Orange County's composite risk score of 79th percentile is above the North Carolina state average of 67th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by flooding exposure (86th percentile), along with hurricane and tornado and earthquake risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.