riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Lancaster County Disaster Risk

Lancaster County, Pennsylvania

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively High

National Percentile

95th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#4

of 67 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

97th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively High

Higher than 97% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Very Low

Higher than 37% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 80% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Moderate

Higher than 94% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Relatively High

Higher than 95% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania

Lancaster County faces the highest disaster risk

Lancaster County's composite score of 95.04 and "Relatively High" rating represent the most elevated hazard exposure among Pennsylvania's counties. At 28 points above the state average of 67.45, Lancaster faces extreme vulnerability across virtually every disaster type.

Highest-risk county in Pennsylvania

Lancaster County holds the top position for composite disaster risk among all 67 Pennsylvania counties, driven by sky-high scores in flooding (96.95), tornadoes (79.83), earthquakes (93.54), and hurricanes (95.49). No other county in the state combines these hazards at such severe intensity.

Far riskier than surrounding counties

Lancaster's 95.04 score dwarfs neighboring Chester County (78.20) and Lebanon County (79.90), making it dramatically more exposed. Even compared to other south-central Pennsylvania counties, Lancaster stands apart as uniquely vulnerable.

Extreme flood and earthquake danger ahead

Lancaster County's flood risk (96.95) is among the nation's highest, paired with extreme earthquake risk (93.54) and near-extreme hurricane risk (95.49). Tornado risk (79.83) adds a fourth major threat, creating a rare convergence of hazards requiring urgent preparedness.

Comprehensive insurance and fortification essential

Flood insurance is non-negotiable in Lancaster County—obtain it immediately if you haven't already. Beyond insurance, elevate critical utilities, reinforce foundations against seismic movement, install storm shutters, and develop a family emergency plan covering floods, earthquakes, tornadoes, and hurricanes.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Lancaster County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    FloodPrepare
    97th percentile
  2. #2
    HurricanePrepare
    95th percentile
  3. #3
    EarthquakePrepare
    94th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Lancaster County

Risk Verdict

At the 95th percentile nationally, Lancaster County is among the more hazard-exposed counties in the United States. Proactive preparedness — not reactive response — is key to managing life in one of the country's higher-risk counties; Lancaster County residents should plan accordingly.

Hazard Breakdown

Flood risk is Lancaster County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 97th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Hurricane ranks second at the 95th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include earthquake (94th percentile), tornado (80th percentile), wildfire (37th percentile).

Preparedness Context

With flood risk ranking at the 97th percentile nationally, Lancaster County residents face one of the most financially damaging hazards without specialized coverage. Flood insurance through the NFIP or a private carrier is worth evaluating regardless of current mortgage requirements. Secondary hurricane exposure at the 95th percentile adds a second preparedness layer; households should review coverage options and alert sign-up for both hazard types. Registering for Lancaster County's county emergency alert system — typically through the county emergency management office's website — ensures households receive early warning when flood events develop faster than forecast.

Regional Context

At 27.6 points above the Pennsylvania state average, Lancaster County carries meaningfully higher natural disaster exposure than a typical Pennsylvania county.

Is your household prepared for Lancaster County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Lancaster County, PA?
Lancaster County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively High, placing it in the 95th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Lancaster County?
Lancaster County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: flooding (97th percentile), hurricane (95th percentile), earthquake (94th percentile), tornado (80th percentile), wildfire (37th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is flooding at the 97th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Lancaster County risk compare to the Pennsylvania average?
Lancaster County's composite risk percentile is 95th, compared to the Pennsylvania state average of 67th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means Lancaster County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Pennsylvania.
Is Lancaster County at risk for flooding?
Yes, Lancaster County's flooding risk is at the 97th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Lancaster County higher risk than average?
Lancaster County's composite risk score of 95th percentile is above the Pennsylvania state average of 67th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by flooding exposure (97th percentile), along with hurricane and earthquake and tornado risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.