riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Northumberland County Disaster Risk

Northumberland County, Pennsylvania

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Low

National Percentile

79th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#25

of 67 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

88th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Moderate

Higher than 88% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Very Low

Higher than 31% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 47% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 64% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 80% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Northumberland County, Pennsylvania

Northumberland's risk sits above the national baseline

With a composite risk score of 79.17, Northumberland County faces relatively low overall disaster risk but scores notably higher than the national average in several hazard categories. The county's hurricane risk of 79.81 and flood risk of 88.30 are particularly elevated, reflecting its exposure to Atlantic-influenced weather systems and river valley geography.

Mid-range risk among Pennsylvania counties

Northumberland's score of 79.17 places it above Pennsylvania's state average of 67.45, making it moderately exposed by state standards. The county ranks higher in flood and hurricane risk than most of its peer counties across central Pennsylvania, primarily due to Susquehanna River proximity.

Riskier than Snyder, safer than Schuylkill

Among its neighbors, Northumberland sits in the middle: it's significantly riskier than nearby Snyder County (54.29) and Perry County (53.12), but less exposed than Schuylkill County (85.31). The key difference is Northumberland's elevated flood and hurricane risk, which neighbors to the west experience less severely.

Floods and hurricanes pose greatest hazards

Northumberland's two dominant threats are flooding (88.30) and hurricane impacts (79.81), both driven by the county's position along the Susquehanna River valley and its susceptibility to Atlantic weather systems. Tornado risk (46.88) and earthquake risk (63.68) are moderate but secondary concerns compared to water-related events.

Prioritize flood and wind coverage now

Residents should ensure comprehensive flood insurance is in place, as standard homeowners policies don't cover flood damage—particularly critical given the county's 88.30 flood risk rating. Verify that your policy includes adequate wind and hail coverage to protect against severe storms and hurricane-force winds.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Northumberland County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    FloodPrepare
    88th percentile
  2. #2
    HurricanePrepare
    80th percentile
  3. #3
    EarthquakePrepare
    64th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Northumberland County

Risk Verdict

Northumberland County sits below the national average for natural disaster exposure, ranking at the 79th percentile across all U.S. counties. Northumberland County's elevated composite score reflects cumulative multi-hazard exposure; households should prepare for the county's two or three primary hazard types.

Hazard Breakdown

Flood risk is Northumberland County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 88th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Hurricane ranks second at the 80th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include earthquake (64th percentile), tornado (47th percentile), wildfire (31th percentile).

Preparedness Context

With flood ranked as the primary hazard at the 88th percentile nationally, Northumberland County households should build a go-bag that includes important documents, medications, and supplies to sustain the family for at least three days if evacuation is needed. The county's second-ranked hazard, hurricane at the 80th percentile nationally, means Northumberland County residents face compounding risks from multiple natural hazard types during peak seasons. A waterproof container for documents (insurance policies, ID, prescriptions) and a clear household communication plan for when phone networks are congested are the two highest-value low-cost preparedness steps for Northumberland County households.

Regional Context

A composite score 11.7 points above the Pennsylvania state average puts Northumberland County in a higher-risk category than most counties in the state.

Is your household prepared for Northumberland County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Northumberland County, PA?
Northumberland County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low, placing it in the 79th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Northumberland County?
Northumberland County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: flooding (88th percentile), hurricane (80th percentile), earthquake (64th percentile), tornado (47th percentile), wildfire (31th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is flooding at the 88th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Northumberland County risk compare to the Pennsylvania average?
Northumberland County's composite risk percentile is 79th, compared to the Pennsylvania state average of 67th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means Northumberland County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Pennsylvania.
Is Northumberland County at risk for flooding?
Yes, Northumberland County's flooding risk is at the 88th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Northumberland County higher risk than average?
Northumberland County's composite risk score of 79th percentile is above the Pennsylvania state average of 67th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by flooding exposure (88th percentile), along with hurricane and earthquake risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.