riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Jefferson County Disaster Risk

Jefferson County, Tennessee

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Low

National Percentile

45th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#61

of 95 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

57th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 57% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 43% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 60% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Moderate

Higher than 83% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 43% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Jefferson County, Tennessee

Jefferson ranks slightly below state

Jefferson County scores 44.88 on the composite risk scale, placing it just below Tennessee's state average of 52.45 in the relatively low category. This positioning reflects meaningful but manageable natural hazard exposure concentrated in specific disaster types.

Lower-risk Tennessee county

With a score of 44.88, Jefferson County ranks below the state average of 52.45 among Tennessee's 95 counties. The county experiences moderate hazard exposure but performs better than many high-risk peers, particularly in the eastern region.

Higher risk than Hickman nearby

Jefferson County (44.88) scores slightly below neighbor Hickman County (47.17), but shows notably higher flood risk (56.77 vs. 46.79) and wildfire risk (42.91 vs. 11.96). Both counties face similar earthquake threats in the low-80s range.

Flood and wildfire lead concerns

Jefferson County faces outsized flood risk at 56.77 and wildfire risk at 42.91, both significantly higher than many peers and representing the county's primary hazards. Earthquake risk (82.60) and tornado risk (59.64) also exceed national averages, requiring comprehensive preparedness.

Prioritize flood and fire coverage

Given Jefferson County's flood risk score of 56.77 and wildfire exposure of 42.91, homeowners should verify these hazards are covered or obtain separate flood and wildfire policies. Standard homeowners insurance excludes flood damage, making a standalone flood policy essential in this county.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Jefferson County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    EarthquakePrepare
    83th percentile
  2. #2
    TornadoPrepare
    60th percentile
  3. #3
    FloodPrepare
    57th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Local Resources

Risk Advisory: Jefferson County

Risk Verdict

Jefferson County has a below-average natural disaster risk profile, scoring at the 45th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. At the 45th percentile nationally, Jefferson County's natural hazard profile is comparatively favorable — community resilience is reinforced when individual households maintain a reviewed emergency plan.

Hazard Breakdown

Earthquake risk is Jefferson County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 83th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Tornado ranks second at the 60th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include flood (57th percentile), wildfire (43th percentile), hurricane (43th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Earthquake risk is Jefferson County's leading natural hazard, ranked at the 83th percentile nationally. Securing tall furniture, water heaters, and bookcases to walls with anti-tip hardware is among the simplest and most effective life-safety measures households can take. The county's tornado risk at the 60th percentile nationally is a seasonal consideration alongside the year-round earthquake threat, requiring awareness of both hazard types. Jefferson County residents should locate the main gas shutoff valve and keep an appropriate wrench nearby — gas leaks cause a significant share of earthquake-related injuries and fires, and the shutoff step is safe to take immediately after shaking stops.

Regional Context

The Tennessee county average exceeds Jefferson County's score by 7.6 composite points — placing this county in the lower-risk tier relative to its in-state peers.

Is your household prepared for Jefferson County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Jefferson County, TN?
Jefferson County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low, placing it in the 45th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Jefferson County?
Jefferson County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: earthquake (83th percentile), tornado (60th percentile), flooding (57th percentile), wildfire (43th percentile), hurricane (43th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is earthquake at the 83th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Jefferson County risk compare to the Tennessee average?
Jefferson County's composite risk percentile is 45th, compared to the Tennessee state average of 53th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means Jefferson County faces lower natural disaster risk than the typical county in Tennessee.
Is Jefferson County at risk for earthquake?
Yes, Jefferson County's earthquake risk is at the 83th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Jefferson County is at the 57th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Is Jefferson County a safe place to live?
Jefferson County's composite risk score of 45th percentile is below the Tennessee state average of 53th percentile, indicating relatively lower exposure to natural hazards. However, no county is completely risk-free. The primary hazard type is earthquake at the 83th percentile. Residents should still maintain emergency preparedness plans and appropriate insurance coverage.

Counties with Similar Risk

Chester County

Tennessee

-0.4

Relatively Low

44th percentile

Marshall County

Tennessee

+0.5

Relatively Low

45th percentile

Cheatham County

Tennessee

+1.4

Relatively Low

46th percentile

By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.

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