riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Arlington County Disaster Risk

Arlington County, Virginia

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Low

National Percentile

67th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#17

of 133 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

74th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 74% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Very Low

Higher than 6% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 44% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 73% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 80% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Arlington County, Virginia

Arlington's moderate risk exceeds state norm

Arlington County's composite risk score of 66.79 rates as relatively low but remains double Virginia's state average of 33.27. The dense urban jurisdiction faces notable flood (73.79), hurricane (80.43), and earthquake (73.03) exposures.

Urban center with above-average exposure

Arlington ranks in Virginia's upper-middle risk tier with a score of 66.79, reflecting its position as a major metropolitan area with riverfront vulnerability. The county's urban density and infrastructure concentration compound natural hazard impacts.

More exposed than rural counties, safer than Alexandria

Arlington's 66.79 score sits below Alexandria City (73.70) and well above rural piedmont counties like Amelia (11.96). The county's Potomac River location creates shared water hazards with Alexandria but on a slightly smaller scale.

Flooding and hurricanes are primary concerns

Arlington's hurricane risk (80.43) and flood risk (73.79) represent the county's main hazards, driven by tidal Potomac River exposure and urban infrastructure concentration. Earthquake risk (73.03) also warrants attention for older building stock.

Flood insurance and structural retrofits advised

Flood insurance is essential for properties near the Potomac River and in flood-prone areas, and consider seismic retrofits for older residential buildings. Verify your homeowners policy includes comprehensive wind and water damage coverage.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Arlington County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    HurricanePrepare
    80th percentile
  2. #2
    FloodPrepare
    74th percentile
  3. #3
    EarthquakePrepare
    73th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Arlington County

Risk Verdict

Arlington County's FEMA risk score places it at the 67th percentile nationally, indicating lower-than-typical exposure for a U.S. county. A moderate composite score often means one or two hazard categories are doing the heavy lifting — knowing which ones matters for preparation.

Hazard Breakdown

Hurricane risk is Arlington County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 80th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Flood ranks second at the 74th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include earthquake (73th percentile), tornado (44th percentile), wildfire (6th percentile).

Preparedness Context

With hurricane ranked at the 80th percentile nationally, Arlington County sits in a zone where multi-day supply readiness matters: grid outages after landfalling storms can last one to three weeks in heavily affected areas. Arlington County's flood exposure at the 74th percentile nationally adds a hazard layer that can persist or intensify after hurricane-force winds have passed, particularly in low-lying inland areas. Insurance gaps are the most common post-hurricane financial shock: standard homeowners policies typically exclude flood damage and may have a separate wind deductible. Arlington County households benefit from a pre-season insurance review confirming both wind and flood coverage.

Regional Context

The Virginia county average is 33.5 composite points below Arlington County's score, a gap that reflects the county's elevated position in the state's hazard distribution.

Is your household prepared for Arlington County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Arlington County, VA?
Arlington County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low, placing it in the 67th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Arlington County?
Arlington County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: hurricane (80th percentile), flooding (74th percentile), earthquake (73th percentile), tornado (44th percentile), wildfire (6th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is hurricane at the 80th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Arlington County risk compare to the Virginia average?
Arlington County's composite risk percentile is 67th, compared to the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Very Low. This means Arlington County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Virginia.
Is Arlington County at risk for hurricane?
Yes, Arlington County's hurricane risk is at the 80th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Arlington County is at the 74th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Arlington County higher risk than average?
Arlington County's composite risk score of 67th percentile is above the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by hurricane exposure (80th percentile), along with flooding and earthquake risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.