riskbycounty
FEMA National Risk Index

Arlington County Disaster Risk

Arlington County, Virginia

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Low

National Percentile

67th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#17

of 133 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

74th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 74% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Very Low

Higher than 6% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 44% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 73% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 80% of US counties

Risk Advisory: Arlington County

Risk Verdict

Arlington County shows a relatively low overall disaster risk profile, scoring in the 67th percentile nationally. The county faces moderate hazard exposure relative to other U.S. counties. Standard emergency preparedness is recommended, with attention to the specific hazards that dominate locally.

Hazard Breakdown

Hurricane risk is the dominant hazard for Arlington County, scoring in the 80th percentile nationally. It is followed by flood risk at the 74th percentile. Additional hazards include earthquake (73th), tornado (44th), wildfire (6th).

Preparedness Context

With hurricane risk as the top concern, Arlington County residents should know your evacuation route, stockpile supplies for at least 72 hours, and review your homeowners and flood insurance policies annually. Secondary risks such as flood also warrant attention in household and community preparedness planning. FEMA recommends all households maintain at least 72 hours of food, water, and medication supplies regardless of specific hazard exposure.

Regional Context

Arlington County is significantly riskier than the average county in Virginia. Its composite risk score is 33.5 points higher than the state average, meaning residents face above-average exposure to natural hazards compared to their neighbors.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Arlington County, VA?
Arlington County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low, placing it in the 67th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Arlington County?
Arlington County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: hurricane (80th percentile), flooding (74th percentile), earthquake (73th percentile), tornado (44th percentile), wildfire (6th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is hurricane at the 80th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Arlington County risk compare to the Virginia average?
Arlington County's composite risk percentile is 67th, compared to the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Very Low. This means Arlington County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Virginia.
Is Arlington County at risk for hurricane?
Yes, Arlington County's hurricane risk is at the 80th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Arlington County is at the 74th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Arlington County higher risk than average?
Arlington County's composite risk score of 67th percentile is above the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by hurricane exposure (80th percentile), along with flooding and earthquake risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.

Counties with Similar Risk

Danville city

Virginia

+1.2

Relatively Low

68th percentile

Stafford County

Virginia

-1.7

Relatively Low

65th percentile

Augusta County

Virginia

+1.8

Relatively Low

69th percentile

By Logan Johnson, Founder & Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Logan Johnson, Founder & Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.

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