riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Stafford County Disaster Risk

Stafford County, Virginia

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Low

National Percentile

65th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#18

of 133 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

75th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 75% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Very Low

Higher than 18% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 52% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 71% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 78% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Stafford County, Virginia

Stafford County faces significant national risk

Stafford County scores 65.04 with a Relatively Low rating, placing it nearly 32 points above Virginia's state average of 33.27. This represents the county's highest-in-group exposure, driven by elevated flood, hurricane, and earthquake risks.

Among Virginia's riskiest counties

Stafford County ranks in Virginia's top tier of disaster risk at 65.04, reflecting significant exposure compared to most Commonwealth counties. The Northern Virginia location concentrates multiple hazard vulnerabilities that warrant serious preparedness attention.

Riskiest in the Northern Virginia cluster

Stafford County's 65.04 score represents the highest risk among Northern Virginia counties in this analysis, exceeding Spotsylvania County (52.89) substantially. The differential reflects Stafford's particular flood and hurricane exposure relative to inland peers.

Flooding and hurricanes top the list

Flood risk at 75.48 dominates Stafford County's hazard profile, followed closely by hurricane risk at 77.51—both among Virginia's highest. Tornado risk at 52.16 and earthquake risk at 70.55 add meaningful secondary concerns, while wildfire remains minimal at 18.19.

Flood and windstorm insurance critical

Stafford County homeowners must secure separate flood insurance; at 75.48 flood risk, the Rappahannock River and tributaries pose serious threats that standard policies exclude. Wind and hail coverage is equally important given the 77.51 hurricane risk score—verify your coverage limits match current property values.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Stafford County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    HurricanePrepare
    78th percentile
  2. #2
    FloodPrepare
    75th percentile
  3. #3
    EarthquakePrepare
    71th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Stafford County

Risk Verdict

Stafford County ranks at the 65th percentile nationally for natural disaster risk — below the median for U.S. counties. Residents are encouraged to understand which hazards dominate locally and tailor their preparedness accordingly.

Hazard Breakdown

Hurricane risk is Stafford County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 78th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Flood ranks second at the 75th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include earthquake (71th percentile), tornado (52th percentile), wildfire (18th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Stafford County ranks at the 78th percentile nationally for hurricane risk. For coastal counties, wind-resistant shutters or impact-rated windows represent the highest single structural investment for reducing property damage. Flood at the 75th percentile nationally is Stafford County's secondary hazard, often intensified by the same weather systems that produce hurricane conditions. For extended post-storm outages common in Stafford County's hurricane zone, a portable generator (operated outdoors only) and a supply of non-perishable food for at least seven days provides meaningful household resilience.

Regional Context

Compared to other Virginia counties, Stafford County runs 31.8 composite risk points higher than the state mean — reflecting above-average hazard concentration in this area.

Is your household prepared for Stafford County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Stafford County, VA?
Stafford County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low, placing it in the 65th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Stafford County?
Stafford County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: hurricane (78th percentile), flooding (75th percentile), earthquake (71th percentile), tornado (52th percentile), wildfire (18th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is hurricane at the 78th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Stafford County risk compare to the Virginia average?
Stafford County's composite risk percentile is 65th, compared to the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Very Low. This means Stafford County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Virginia.
Is Stafford County at risk for hurricane?
Yes, Stafford County's hurricane risk is at the 78th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Stafford County is at the 75th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Stafford County higher risk than average?
Stafford County's composite risk score of 65th percentile is above the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by hurricane exposure (78th percentile), along with flooding and earthquake and tornado risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.