riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Page County Disaster Risk

Page County, Virginia

FEMA Risk Rating

Very Low

National Percentile

38th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#54

of 133 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

57th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 57% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 53% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 19% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 43% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 77% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Page County, Virginia

Page County's risk slightly exceeds state average

Page County scores 37.88 on the composite risk scale, placing it in the very low risk category but above Virginia's state average of 33.27. The county faces moderately elevated natural hazard exposure compared to typical U.S. counties, driven primarily by flood and wildfire vulnerabilities.

Upper third of Virginia's risk profile

At 37.88, Page County ranks above-average for Virginia and sits in the upper portion of the state's risk distribution. The county's elevated score reflects its geographic position in the Shenandoah Valley, where flooding and wildfire pose greater threats than in other Virginia regions.

Highest risk in the immediate region

Page County's score of 37.88 exceeds nearby Orange County (25.57) and Patrick County (20.87), making it the riskiest in its immediate area. The county's position in the valley exposes it to flood risks that neighboring ridge-top communities largely avoid.

Floods and wildfires pose serious threats

Flood risk (56.55) and wildfire risk (53.34) dominate Page County's hazard profile, substantially higher than state averages due to the county's valley location and forested terrain. Hurricane risk (77.01) and earthquake risk (43.10) rank third and fourth, creating a multi-hazard environment.

Flood insurance is essential for many residents

Page County residents, especially those near the Shenandoah River or tributary flood plains, should secure federal flood insurance through NFIP; standard homeowners policies exclude flood damage. Wildfire-prone properties should also verify brush removal compliance and ensure adequate home hardening measures around structures.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Page County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    HurricanePrepare
    77th percentile
  2. #2
    FloodPrepare
    57th percentile
  3. #3
    WildfirePrepare
    53th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Page County

Risk Verdict

Compared to the nation's 3,144 counties, Page County ranks at the 38th percentile for natural disaster risk — toward the safer end of the spectrum. Page County's 38th percentile ranking is favorable, though every county carries at least one natural hazard worth knowing — reviewing the specific risks listed above helps households focus their preparedness where it matters most.

Hazard Breakdown

Hurricane risk is Page County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 77th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Flood ranks second at the 57th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include wildfire (53th percentile), earthquake (43th percentile), tornado (19th percentile).

Preparedness Context

With hurricane ranked at the 77th percentile nationally, Page County sits in a zone where multi-day supply readiness matters: grid outages after landfalling storms can last one to three weeks in heavily affected areas. Page County's flood exposure at the 57th percentile nationally adds a hazard layer that can persist or intensify after hurricane-force winds have passed, particularly in low-lying inland areas. Insurance gaps are the most common post-hurricane financial shock: standard homeowners policies typically exclude flood damage and may have a separate wind deductible. Page County households benefit from a pre-season insurance review confirming both wind and flood coverage.

Regional Context

Page County sits within 4.6 composite points of the Virginia state average, suggesting the county's hazard exposure is representative of the broader regional pattern.

Is your household prepared for Page County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Page County, VA?
Page County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low, placing it in the 38th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Page County?
Page County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: hurricane (77th percentile), flooding (57th percentile), wildfire (53th percentile), earthquake (43th percentile), tornado (19th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is hurricane at the 77th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Page County risk compare to the Virginia average?
Page County's composite risk percentile is 38th, compared to the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Very Low. This means Page County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Virginia.
Is Page County at risk for hurricane?
Yes, Page County's hurricane risk is at the 77th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Page County is at the 57th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Page County higher risk than average?
Page County's composite risk score of 38th percentile is above the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by hurricane exposure (77th percentile), along with flooding and wildfire risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.