riskbycounty
FEMA National Risk Index

Winchester city Disaster Risk

Winchester city, Virginia

FEMA Risk Rating

Very Low

National Percentile

17th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#89

of 133 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

32th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Very Low

Higher than 32% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Very Low

Higher than 5% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 25% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 63% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 70% of US counties

Risk Advisory: Winchester city

Risk Verdict

Winchester city has a very low overall disaster risk profile, scoring in the 17th percentile nationally. This county is among the safer counties in the United States from a natural disaster perspective, though no area is entirely risk-free.

Hazard Breakdown

Hurricane risk is the dominant hazard for Winchester city, scoring in the 70th percentile nationally. It is followed by earthquake risk at the 63th percentile. Additional hazards include flood (32th), tornado (25th), wildfire (5th).

Preparedness Context

With hurricane risk as the top concern, Winchester city residents should know your evacuation route, stockpile supplies for at least 72 hours, and review your homeowners and flood insurance policies annually. Secondary risks such as earthquake also warrant attention in household and community preparedness planning. FEMA recommends all households maintain at least 72 hours of food, water, and medication supplies regardless of specific hazard exposure.

Regional Context

Winchester city is notably safer than the average county in Virginia. Its composite risk score is 16.4 points lower than the state average, indicating below-average exposure to natural hazards relative to other counties in the state.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Winchester city, VA?
Winchester city has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low, placing it in the 17th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Winchester city?
Winchester city is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: hurricane (70th percentile), earthquake (63th percentile), flooding (32th percentile), tornado (25th percentile), wildfire (5th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is hurricane at the 70th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Winchester city risk compare to the Virginia average?
Winchester city's composite risk percentile is 17th, compared to the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Very Low. This means Winchester city faces lower natural disaster risk than the typical county in Virginia.
Is Winchester city at risk for hurricane?
Yes, Winchester city's hurricane risk is at the 70th percentile nationally. This is above the national median. For flooding specifically, Winchester city is at the 32th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Is Winchester city a safe place to live?
Winchester city's composite risk score of 17th percentile is below the Virginia state average of 33th percentile, indicating relatively lower exposure to natural hazards. However, no county is completely risk-free. The primary hazard type is hurricane at the 70th percentile. Residents should still maintain emergency preparedness plans and appropriate insurance coverage.

Counties with Similar Risk

Petersburg city

Virginia

+0.1

Very Low

17th percentile

Manassas city

Virginia

-0.2

Very Low

17th percentile

Giles County

Virginia

-0.3

Very Low

17th percentile

By Logan Johnson, Founder & Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Logan Johnson, Founder & Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.

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