riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Baxter County Disaster Risk

Baxter County, Arkansas

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Low

National Percentile

72th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#19

of 75 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

64th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 64% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 72% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Moderate

Higher than 87% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Moderate

Higher than 86% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Very Low

Higher than 36% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Baxter County, Arkansas

Baxter County's elevated national risk

Baxter County's composite score of 72.30 substantially exceeds the national average, placing it in a higher-risk category for natural disasters. Tornado and wildfire hazards are particularly pronounced in this county.

Among Arkansas's riskiest counties

Baxter County's 72.30 score ranks well above the state average of 55.51, making it one of Arkansas's higher-risk counties. The elevation reflects concentrated tornado and wildfire exposure in the Ozark region.

Higher risk than surrounding counties

Baxter County's 72.30 exceeds Carroll County's 64.57 and significantly surpasses Boone County's 62.34. Its geographic position in the Ozark plateau contributes to heightened wildfire and severe weather vulnerability.

Tornado and wildfire emergencies

Tornado risk of 86.80 is Baxter County's dominant threat, with severe spring and fall storms a regular occurrence. Wildfire risk of 71.95 poses a secondary but serious threat, particularly during dry periods, threatening forested areas and homes.

Storm shelter and fire prevention critical

With tornado risk at 86.80, a safe room or basement shelter is essential for family protection during storm season. Maintain defensible space around your home, clear gutters, and ensure homeowners insurance explicitly covers both wind and wildfire damage.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Baxter County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    TornadoPrepare
    87th percentile
  2. #2
    EarthquakePrepare
    86th percentile
  3. #3
    WildfirePrepare
    72th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Local Resources

Risk Advisory: Baxter County

Risk Verdict

Baxter County has a below-average natural disaster risk profile, scoring at the 72th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Households in Baxter County benefit from knowing which individual hazard types — flood, wildfire, tornado, or hurricane — are the primary contributors.

Hazard Breakdown

Tornado risk is Baxter County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 87th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Earthquake ranks second at the 86th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include wildfire (72th percentile), flood (64th percentile), hurricane (36th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Tornado risk is Baxter County's top-ranked natural hazard at the 87th percentile nationally. For Baxter County households, the most protective action available is identifying a reinforced interior room on the lowest floor — a bathroom, closet, or central hallway away from windows. Alongside tornado exposure, earthquake at the 86th percentile nationally means Baxter County households face multi-hazard severe-weather seasons that benefit from a single integrated emergency plan covering both threats. A battery-powered NOAA All Hazards weather radio with an auto-alert tone is the highest-leverage single item for tornado preparedness in Baxter County, since it delivers warnings even when power is out and phone networks are congested.

Regional Context

Baxter County's composite risk score sits 16.8 points above the Arkansas county average, placing it among the more hazard-exposed counties in the state.

Is your household prepared for Baxter County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Baxter County, AR?
Baxter County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low, placing it in the 72th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Baxter County?
Baxter County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: tornado (87th percentile), earthquake (86th percentile), wildfire (72th percentile), flooding (64th percentile), hurricane (36th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is tornado at the 87th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Baxter County risk compare to the Arkansas average?
Baxter County's composite risk percentile is 72th, compared to the Arkansas state average of 56th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means Baxter County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Arkansas.
Is Baxter County at risk for tornado?
Yes, Baxter County's tornado risk is at the 87th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Baxter County is at the 64th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Baxter County higher risk than average?
Baxter County's composite risk score of 72th percentile is above the Arkansas state average of 56th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by tornado exposure (87th percentile), along with earthquake and wildfire and flooding risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.

Counties with Similar Risk

Poinsett County

Arkansas

+0.2

Relatively Low

73th percentile

Cleburne County

Arkansas

+0.4

Relatively Low

73th percentile

Clay County

Arkansas

-0.7

Relatively Low

72th percentile

By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.

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