riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Jefferson County Disaster Risk

Jefferson County, Arkansas

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Moderate

National Percentile

85th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#10

of 75 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

78th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 78% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 58% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Moderate

Higher than 93% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively High

Higher than 96% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 65% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Jefferson County, Arkansas

Jefferson ranks as state's riskiest county

Jefferson County's composite risk score of 85.18 earns a Relatively Moderate rating—the highest in Arkansas and well above the state average of 55.51. This score reflects dangerous exposure across nearly every natural hazard category.

Arkansas's most disaster-prone county

Jefferson County faces the greatest combined natural disaster risk of any Arkansas county. Its scores exceed state averages in flood (78.21), tornado (92.53), earthquake (95.58), and hurricane (65.29) risk.

Dramatically higher risks than neighbors

Jefferson's 85.18 composite score towers above Jackson County's 67.84 and Lawrence County's 67.88. The county's flood risk of 78.21 is nearly four times Lafayette County's 16.86, reflecting geographic and structural vulnerability.

Earthquakes, tornadoes, and floods threaten

Jefferson residents face earthquake risk at 95.58—the state's highest—combined with tornado risk at 92.53 and flood risk at 78.21. These three hazards alone make Jefferson the state's most comprehensively threatened county.

Layer all major disaster coverage

Jefferson homeowners need earthquake insurance (95.58 risk), flood insurance through NFIP (78.21 risk), and windstorm riders for tornado protection (92.53 risk). Don't rely on standard homeowners policies—these three separate coverages are critical.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Jefferson County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    EarthquakePrepare
    96th percentile
  2. #2
    TornadoPrepare
    93th percentile
  3. #3
    FloodPrepare
    78th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Jefferson County

Risk Verdict

With a composite score at the 85th percentile, Jefferson County sits above the national median for natural hazard exposure. Proactive preparedness — not reactive response — is key to managing life in one of the country's higher-risk counties; Jefferson County residents should plan accordingly.

Hazard Breakdown

Earthquake risk is Jefferson County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 96th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Tornado ranks second at the 93th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include flood (78th percentile), hurricane (65th percentile), wildfire (58th percentile).

Preparedness Context

At the 96th percentile nationally for earthquake exposure, Jefferson County households benefit from practicing Drop, Cover, and Hold On — the protocol that minimizes injury during shaking. Getting under a sturdy table or desk and holding on until shaking stops is the key action. Tornado at the 93th percentile nationally is a separate hazard dimension for Jefferson County that requires different protective strategies from earthquake preparedness. Building age matters for earthquake risk in Jefferson County: structures built before local seismic code adoption are statistically more vulnerable. Contacting the local building department about retrofit programs can reveal whether your structure qualifies for mitigation assistance.

Regional Context

At 29.7 points above the Arkansas state average, Jefferson County carries meaningfully higher natural disaster exposure than a typical Arkansas county.

Is your household prepared for Jefferson County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Jefferson County, AR?
Jefferson County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Moderate, placing it in the 85th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Jefferson County?
Jefferson County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: earthquake (96th percentile), tornado (93th percentile), flooding (78th percentile), hurricane (65th percentile), wildfire (58th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is earthquake at the 96th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Jefferson County risk compare to the Arkansas average?
Jefferson County's composite risk percentile is 85th, compared to the Arkansas state average of 56th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means Jefferson County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Arkansas.
Is Jefferson County at risk for earthquake?
Yes, Jefferson County's earthquake risk is at the 96th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Jefferson County is at the 78th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Jefferson County higher risk than average?
Jefferson County's composite risk score of 85th percentile is above the Arkansas state average of 56th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by earthquake exposure (96th percentile), along with tornado and flooding and hurricane and wildfire risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.