riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Sebastian County Disaster Risk

Sebastian County, Arkansas

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Moderate

National Percentile

87th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#7

of 75 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

86th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Moderate

Higher than 86% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Moderate

Higher than 90% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Moderate

Higher than 94% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Moderate

Higher than 85% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 49% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Sebastian County, Arkansas

Sebastian County faces above-average disaster risk

Sebastian County's composite risk score of 86.80 places it well above the national average, marking it as a relatively moderate-risk area. This score reflects significant exposure across multiple hazard types, particularly tornadoes and wildfires. Residents here face notably higher natural disaster risk than most Americans.

Second-highest risk county in Arkansas

Sebastian County ranks second among Arkansas counties for overall disaster risk, with a composite score of 86.80 compared to the state average of 55.51. Only one Arkansas county faces greater combined hazard exposure. This elevated standing reflects the county's vulnerability to tornadoes, wildfires, and earthquakes.

Significantly riskier than surrounding counties

Sebastian County's risk score of 86.80 substantially exceeds that of neighboring Van Buren County (50.57) and Stone County (49.87). Even compared to nearby Crawford and Franklin counties, Sebastian faces considerably greater natural disaster exposure. This concentration of risk is driven by the county's tornado and wildfire susceptibility.

Tornadoes and wildfires pose greatest threats

Tornado risk in Sebastian County scores 94.24—among the highest in the nation—making severe convective storms your most pressing hazard. Wildfire risk scores 90.36, creating secondary but serious threats to homes and infrastructure. Together, these two hazards account for much of the county's elevated composite risk score.

Secure comprehensive coverage now

Sebastian County residents should prioritize homeowners insurance with robust windstorm and hail coverage given the extreme tornado risk of 94.24. Consider separate wildfire insurance or endorsements, as standard policies often exclude or limit wildfire damage. Maintaining a safe room or shelter-in-place strategy is equally critical for tornado season.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Sebastian County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    TornadoPrepare
    94th percentile
  2. #2
    WildfirePrepare
    90th percentile
  3. #3
    FloodPrepare
    86th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Sebastian County

Risk Verdict

Sebastian County faces a moderate natural disaster risk profile, ranking at the 87th percentile nationally under FEMA's composite risk model. This risk level calls for more than general awareness: insurance coverage review, a family communication plan, and a prepared go-bag are practical priorities.

Hazard Breakdown

Tornado risk is Sebastian County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 94th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Wildfire ranks second at the 90th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include flood (86th percentile), earthquake (85th percentile), hurricane (49th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Tornado risk is Sebastian County's top-ranked natural hazard at the 94th percentile nationally. For Sebastian County households, the most protective action available is identifying a reinforced interior room on the lowest floor — a bathroom, closet, or central hallway away from windows. Alongside tornado exposure, wildfire at the 90th percentile nationally means Sebastian County households face multi-hazard severe-weather seasons that benefit from a single integrated emergency plan covering both threats. A battery-powered NOAA All Hazards weather radio with an auto-alert tone is the highest-leverage single item for tornado preparedness in Sebastian County, since it delivers warnings even when power is out and phone networks are congested.

Regional Context

Sebastian County's composite risk score sits 31.3 points above the Arkansas county average, placing it among the more hazard-exposed counties in the state.

Is your household prepared for Sebastian County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Sebastian County, AR?
Sebastian County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Moderate, placing it in the 87th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Sebastian County?
Sebastian County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: tornado (94th percentile), wildfire (90th percentile), flooding (86th percentile), earthquake (85th percentile), hurricane (49th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is tornado at the 94th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Sebastian County risk compare to the Arkansas average?
Sebastian County's composite risk percentile is 87th, compared to the Arkansas state average of 56th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means Sebastian County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Arkansas.
Is Sebastian County at risk for tornado?
Yes, Sebastian County's tornado risk is at the 94th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Sebastian County is at the 86th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Sebastian County higher risk than average?
Sebastian County's composite risk score of 87th percentile is above the Arkansas state average of 56th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by tornado exposure (94th percentile), along with wildfire and flooding and earthquake risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.