riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

San Francisco County Disaster Risk

San Francisco County, California

FEMA Risk Rating

Very High

National Percentile

100th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#8

of 58 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

99th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively High

Higher than 99% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Very Low

Higher than 29% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 35% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Very High

Higher than 100% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in San Francisco County, California

San Francisco faces extreme earthquake and flood risk

San Francisco County's composite risk score of 99.52 ranks it as "Very High" and among the nation's riskiest counties, substantially above the typical U.S. baseline. Though it exceeds California's 88.72 average, the city's lower wildfire exposure (28.66) partially offsets other hazards.

Fifth-riskiest county in California overall

San Francisco ranks high statewide despite having California's lowest wildfire risk (28.66), because earthquake (99.78) and flood (98.60) risks are among the highest in the state. The city's dense, aging infrastructure magnifies disaster impacts.

Much riskier than rural inland Bay Area counties

San Francisco (99.52) vastly exceeds San Benito County (85.24) and approaches the extreme risk of Riverside and San Bernardino. Its urban concentration and proximity to the San Andreas Fault create concentrated hazard exposure unlike surrounding counties.

Earthquakes and flooding top the hazard list

San Francisco's earthquake risk (99.78) reflects the city's position on the San Andreas and Hayward faults—major seismic sources. Flood risk (98.60) is equally critical due to rising seas, aging levees, and bay flooding hazards affecting the urban core.

Earthquake insurance is critical; consider flood too

San Francisco homeowners must carry earthquake insurance given the city's extreme seismic risk and should evaluate flood coverage based on location—the Embarcadero and waterfront properties face particular inundation threats. Standard policies leave most residents dangerously exposed.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in San Francisco County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    EarthquakePrepare
    100th percentile
  2. #2
    FloodPrepare
    99th percentile
  3. #3
    TornadoPrepare
    35th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: San Francisco County

Risk Verdict

At the 100th percentile nationally, San Francisco County faces one of the most concentrated natural disaster risk profiles of any U.S. county. San Francisco County's elevated composite score reflects cumulative multi-hazard exposure; households should prepare for the county's two or three primary hazard types.

Hazard Breakdown

Earthquake risk is San Francisco County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 100th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Flood ranks second at the 99th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include tornado (35th percentile), wildfire (29th percentile).

Preparedness Context

At the 100th percentile nationally for earthquake risk, San Francisco County is in a zone where a post-earthquake communications plan matters almost as much as pre-earthquake structural preparation — phone networks are typically congested for hours after a significant event. Alongside earthquake exposure, San Francisco County's flood risk at the 99th percentile nationally reinforces the value of maintaining a household emergency supply cache usable for multiple hazard scenarios. For San Francisco County households, the three highest-impact earthquake preparedness actions are: (1) anchor heavy furniture and water heaters, (2) store three days of water at one gallon per person per day, and (3) identify a family reunification plan for the post-quake communication blackout period.

Regional Context

A composite score 10.8 points above the California state average puts San Francisco County in a higher-risk category than most counties in the state.

Is your household prepared for San Francisco County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in San Francisco County, CA?
San Francisco County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very High, placing it in the 100th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect San Francisco County?
San Francisco County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: earthquake (100th percentile), flooding (99th percentile), tornado (35th percentile), wildfire (29th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is earthquake at the 100th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does San Francisco County risk compare to the California average?
San Francisco County's composite risk percentile is 100th, compared to the California state average of 89th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Moderate. This means San Francisco County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in California.
Is San Francisco County at risk for earthquake?
Yes, San Francisco County's earthquake risk is at the 100th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, San Francisco County is at the 99th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is San Francisco County higher risk than average?
San Francisco County's composite risk score of 100th percentile is above the California state average of 89th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by earthquake exposure (100th percentile), along with flooding risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.