riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Mesa County Disaster Risk

Mesa County, Colorado

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Low

National Percentile

75th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#13

of 64 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

82th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Moderate

Higher than 82% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Moderate

Higher than 90% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 18% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Moderate

Higher than 85% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Mesa County, Colorado

Mesa County faces significant multi-hazard risk

With a composite risk score of 75.13 and a Relatively Low rating, Mesa County experiences disaster exposure well above the U.S. average. This elevated risk reflects exposure to multiple simultaneous hazards, particularly flooding, wildfire, and earthquakes.

Among Colorado's highest-risk counties

Mesa County's 75.13 score nearly doubles Colorado's 40.67 state average, placing it in the upper tier of statewide risk. Only a handful of Colorado counties face comparable disaster exposure, making Mesa a high-risk community by state standards.

Far riskier than surrounding mountain counties

Mesa (75.13) faces nearly triple the risk of Lake County (5.66) to the southeast and substantially more than Lincoln (7.47) to the south. Among western Colorado's main population centers, Mesa carries the highest composite disaster burden alongside La Plata.

Earthquakes, floods, and wildfires all significant

Earthquake risk scores 84.70—exceptionally high for Colorado—reflecting the county's proximity to the Rocky Mountain fault system and Moab seismic zone. Flood risk at 81.90 reflects both Colorado River dynamics and storm runoff; wildfire at 89.95 reflects semi-arid forests and grasslands.

Comprehensive insurance essential for Mesa residents

Homeowners must carry earthquake coverage—Mesa's seismic risk is the highest in Colorado—along with comprehensive flood and wildfire protection. Bundle these coverages strategically, secure your home against seismic damage, and maintain evacuation plans for multiple hazard types; Mesa's multi-hazard exposure demands active preparedness.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Mesa County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    WildfirePrepare
    90th percentile
  2. #2
    EarthquakePrepare
    85th percentile
  3. #3
    FloodPrepare
    82th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Mesa County

Risk Verdict

Mesa County sits below the national average for natural disaster exposure, ranking at the 75th percentile across all U.S. counties. Mesa County's elevated composite score reflects cumulative multi-hazard exposure; households should prepare for the county's two or three primary hazard types.

Hazard Breakdown

Wildfire risk is Mesa County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 90th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Earthquake ranks second at the 85th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include flood (82th percentile), tornado (18th percentile).

Preparedness Context

At the 90th percentile nationally for wildfire, Mesa County residents should verify whether their insurance policy includes replacement cost coverage for structures and whether the insurer still writes new policies in this fire-risk zone. The county's earthquake exposure at the 85th percentile nationally complements the wildfire risk — saturating rain after burn scarring often triggers secondary flood and debris flow events. Local USFS or Cal Fire (where applicable) fire risk maps and seasonal Red Flag Warning alerts from the National Weather Service are two free resources Mesa County residents can use to stay ahead of rapidly changing wildfire conditions.

Regional Context

A composite score 34.5 points above the Colorado state average puts Mesa County in a higher-risk category than most counties in the state.

Is your household prepared for Mesa County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Mesa County, CO?
Mesa County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low, placing it in the 75th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Mesa County?
Mesa County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: wildfire (90th percentile), earthquake (85th percentile), flooding (82th percentile), tornado (18th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is wildfire at the 90th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Mesa County risk compare to the Colorado average?
Mesa County's composite risk percentile is 75th, compared to the Colorado state average of 41th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Very Low. This means Mesa County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Colorado.
Is Mesa County at risk for wildfire?
Yes, Mesa County's wildfire risk is at the 90th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Mesa County is at the 82th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Mesa County higher risk than average?
Mesa County's composite risk score of 75th percentile is above the Colorado state average of 41th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by wildfire exposure (90th percentile), along with earthquake and flooding risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.