riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Carroll County Disaster Risk

Carroll County, Illinois

FEMA Risk Rating

Very Low

National Percentile

39th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#70

of 102 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

46th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 46% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Very Low

Higher than 13% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 56% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Very Low

Higher than 32% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Very Low

Higher than 12% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Carroll County, Illinois

Carroll County's risk well below average

Carroll County scores 39.03 on the composite disaster risk scale, earning a "Very Low" rating and positioning it well below the national average. This reflects modest exposure to most hazards, though tornado risk registers moderately at 55.88.

Among Illinois's lowest-risk counties

At 39.03, Carroll County ranks in the lower tier of Illinois counties for disaster risk, substantially below the state average of 54.46. Residents enjoy comparative safety from multiple natural hazards, though tornado preparedness remains practical.

Safer than most nearby counties

Carroll County's 39.03 score places it among the region's safer areas, comparable to Bond County (36.23) and substantially safer than Boone County (57.35), Adams County (64.19), or Alexander County (44.08). Only Brown County (4.74) and Calhoun County (6.08) present significantly lower risk.

Tornadoes the primary concern

Carroll County's tornado risk of 55.88 substantially outpaces flood risk (46.47) and represents the county's main hazard exposure. Earthquake risk (31.65) and wildfire risk (13.07) remain minimal by comparison.

Prepare for tornado season

Carroll County's very low overall risk means standard homeowners insurance provides adequate protection, but ensure wind and hail coverage is included. Develop a tornado action plan during spring, identify your home's safest room, and review warning systems so you can act quickly when storms approach.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Carroll County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    TornadoPrepare
    56th percentile
  2. #2
    FloodPrepare
    46th percentile
  3. #3
    EarthquakePrepare
    32th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Local Resources

Risk Advisory: Carroll County

Risk Verdict

Carroll County carries a low natural disaster risk burden, scoring at the 39th percentile under the FEMA National Risk Index. A preparedness foundation — alert registration, household communication plan, and a basic supply review — costs little and remains valuable even at Carroll County's favorable 39th percentile ranking.

Hazard Breakdown

Tornado risk is Carroll County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 56th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Flood ranks second at the 46th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include earthquake (32th percentile), wildfire (13th percentile), hurricane (12th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Carroll County's primary hazard, tornado, ranks at the 56th percentile nationally. In Carroll County, mobile homes and manufactured housing face significantly higher tornado risk than site-built structures; residents in these homes should identify the nearest permanent community shelter in advance. Flood is the second hazard driver for Carroll County at the 46th percentile nationally, meaning households should maintain awareness of both severe-weather and flood-specific warning systems. The highest-risk window for tornado fatalities is overnight, when Carroll County residents may be asleep. A NOAA weather radio with overnight alert capability is the single most impactful low-cost preparedness step available to Carroll County households.

Regional Context

Compared to the Illinois county average, Carroll County's composite score runs 15.4 points lower — a gap that reflects the county's relatively modest hazard profile within its state context.

Is your household prepared for Carroll County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Carroll County, IL?
Carroll County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low, placing it in the 39th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Carroll County?
Carroll County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: tornado (56th percentile), flooding (46th percentile), earthquake (32th percentile), wildfire (13th percentile), hurricane (12th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is tornado at the 56th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Carroll County risk compare to the Illinois average?
Carroll County's composite risk percentile is 39th, compared to the Illinois state average of 55th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means Carroll County faces lower natural disaster risk than the typical county in Illinois.
Is Carroll County at risk for tornado?
Yes, Carroll County's tornado risk is at the 56th percentile nationally. This is above the national median. For flooding specifically, Carroll County is at the 46th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Is Carroll County a safe place to live?
Carroll County's composite risk score of 39th percentile is below the Illinois state average of 55th percentile, indicating relatively lower exposure to natural hazards. However, no county is completely risk-free. The primary hazard type is tornado at the 56th percentile. Residents should still maintain emergency preparedness plans and appropriate insurance coverage.

Counties with Similar Risk

Cass County

Illinois

-0.4

Very Low

39th percentile

Woodford County

Illinois

+0.9

Very Low

40th percentile

McDonough County

Illinois

-1.5

Very Low

38th percentile

By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.

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