riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Frederick County Disaster Risk

Frederick County, Maryland

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Low

National Percentile

74th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#6

of 24 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

82th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Moderate

Higher than 82% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Very Low

Higher than 28% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 67% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 75% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 79% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Frederick County, Maryland

Frederick County Above National Risk Average

Frederick County scores 74.20 on the composite risk scale, placing it in the higher end compared to the national median and indicating above-average disaster exposure. The county's elevated tornado risk (67.21), hurricane risk (79.27), and earthquake risk (74.59) all exceed national norms significantly. Flood risk of 81.58 rounds out a multi-hazard profile that demands comprehensive preparedness.

Among Maryland's Higher-Risk Counties

Frederick County ranks in the upper tier of Maryland counties with a composite score of 74.20, well above the state average of 60.22. Only Montgomery County (91.67) and Harford County (72.46) and Howard County (72.42) approach Frederick's risk level in Maryland. Frederick's elevated tornado, flood, and earthquake scores reflect its central Maryland location and varied topography.

Riskier Than Most Adjacent Counties

Frederick County's composite score of 74.20 exceeds neighboring Washington, Carroll, and Baltimore counties, though it closely trails Harford and Howard counties to the east. Frederick's tornado risk (67.21) is notably higher than regional peers, while its flood risk (81.58) aligns with other central Maryland counties. The county's convergence of multiple hazard types distinguishes it within the region.

Tornadoes, Floods, Hurricanes Matter Most

Frederick County's top three hazards are flood risk (81.58), hurricane risk (79.27), and earthquake risk (74.59), creating a complex hazard landscape. Tornado risk reaches 67.21, markedly higher than most Maryland counties and reflecting Frederick's position in a convergence zone for severe thunderstorms. Wildfire risk is relatively low at 27.64, offering one pocket of mitigation focus.

Prepare for Tornadoes and Floods

Frederick County residents should prioritize a safe room or basement shelter for tornado protection, as the county's 67.21 tornado risk score far exceeds state averages and demands active family drills. Flood insurance is essential for properties near streams and floodplains; the county's 81.58 flood score affects broad areas. Add earthquake and hurricane riders to your homeowners policy to cover Frederick's 74.59 and 79.27 risks respectively.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Frederick County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    FloodPrepare
    82th percentile
  2. #2
    HurricanePrepare
    79th percentile
  3. #3
    EarthquakePrepare
    75th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Frederick County

Risk Verdict

Frederick County's FEMA risk score places it at the 74th percentile nationally, indicating lower-than-typical exposure for a U.S. county. A moderate composite score often means one or two hazard categories are doing the heavy lifting — knowing which ones matters for preparation.

Hazard Breakdown

Flood risk is Frederick County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 82th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Hurricane ranks second at the 79th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include earthquake (75th percentile), tornado (67th percentile), wildfire (28th percentile).

Preparedness Context

At the 82th percentile nationally for flood risk, Frederick County residents benefit from understanding their specific flood zone status. Even one inch of floodwater causes significant structural damage to properties outside officially designated high-risk zones. Alongside flooding, hurricane exposure at the 79th percentile means households benefit from a multi-hazard preparedness plan rather than focusing on flood alone. A tested family preparedness plan specific to Frederick County's primary hazards — including how to shelter in place or evacuate, and who to call — provides more real protection than a general emergency kit sitting unused on a shelf.

Regional Context

The Maryland county average is 14.0 composite points below Frederick County's score, a gap that reflects the county's elevated position in the state's hazard distribution.

Is your household prepared for Frederick County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Frederick County, MD?
Frederick County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low, placing it in the 74th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Frederick County?
Frederick County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: flooding (82th percentile), hurricane (79th percentile), earthquake (75th percentile), tornado (67th percentile), wildfire (28th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is flooding at the 82th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Frederick County risk compare to the Maryland average?
Frederick County's composite risk percentile is 74th, compared to the Maryland state average of 60th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means Frederick County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Maryland.
Is Frederick County at risk for flooding?
Yes, Frederick County's flooding risk is at the 82th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Frederick County higher risk than average?
Frederick County's composite risk score of 74th percentile is above the Maryland state average of 60th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by flooding exposure (82th percentile), along with hurricane and earthquake and tornado risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.