riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Cole County Disaster Risk

Cole County, Missouri

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Low

National Percentile

73th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#27

of 115 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

73th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 73% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 72% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Moderate

Higher than 84% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Moderate

Higher than 82% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Very Low

Higher than 18% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Cole County, Missouri

Cole County Faces Elevated Risk

Cole County's composite risk score of 73.44 ranks it Relatively Low nationally, but substantially exceeds Missouri's state average of 50.56 by 23 points. This elevation reflects genuine multi-hazard exposure that demands serious preparedness planning.

Among Missouri's Riskiest Counties

Cole County ranks in the upper tier of Missouri's 114 counties for overall disaster risk, driven by exceptionally high earthquake (82.32) and tornado (84.32) scores. Only a handful of Missouri counties face comparable seismic and severe weather threats.

Higher Risk Than Surrounding Areas

Cole County's 73.44 score significantly outpaces Cooper County (20.39), Dallas County (41.70), and Daviess County (30.06). This gap underscores Cole's unique vulnerability profile, particularly its elevated earthquake and tornado risk.

Tornadoes and Earthquakes Dominate

Tornado risk of 84.32 ranks as Cole County's most pressing threat, while earthquake risk of 82.32 poses unusual seismic exposure for Missouri. Flood risk of 73.47 completes a trifecta of serious hazards requiring comprehensive household planning.

Multi-Hazard Insurance Strategy

Cole County residents need windstorm, flood, and earthquake coverage—an unusually comprehensive insurance package for Missouri. Retrofit a safe room or reinforced shelter to withstand both tornado and earthquake impacts, and ensure your homeowners policy covers each distinct peril.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Cole County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    TornadoPrepare
    84th percentile
  2. #2
    EarthquakePrepare
    82th percentile
  3. #3
    FloodPrepare
    73th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Local Resources

Risk Advisory: Cole County

Risk Verdict

With a national percentile rank of 73th, Cole County faces below-average hazard exposure relative to U.S. counties as a whole. Above-average risk does not mean imminent danger; it signals that informed, hazard-specific preparedness has high value here.

Hazard Breakdown

Tornado risk is Cole County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 84th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Earthquake ranks second at the 82th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include flood (73th percentile), wildfire (72th percentile), hurricane (18th percentile).

Preparedness Context

At the 84th percentile nationally for tornado risk, Cole County households benefit most from a reliable alert system — a NOAA weather radio that activates during overnight hours when residents may not be checking smartphone alerts. Earthquake is the second hazard driver for Cole County at the 82th percentile nationally, meaning households should maintain awareness of both severe-weather and earthquake-specific warning systems. For Cole County households, a pre-decided family shelter plan — who goes where, how children are retrieved from school during a warning, and a neighborhood meet-up point if phones fail — provides real protection that no supply kit alone can replicate.

Regional Context

At 22.9 points above the Missouri state average, Cole County carries meaningfully higher natural disaster exposure than a typical Missouri county.

Is your household prepared for Cole County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Cole County, MO?
Cole County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low, placing it in the 73th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Cole County?
Cole County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: tornado (84th percentile), earthquake (82th percentile), flooding (73th percentile), wildfire (72th percentile), hurricane (18th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is tornado at the 84th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Cole County risk compare to the Missouri average?
Cole County's composite risk percentile is 73th, compared to the Missouri state average of 51th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means Cole County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Missouri.
Is Cole County at risk for tornado?
Yes, Cole County's tornado risk is at the 84th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Cole County is at the 73th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Cole County higher risk than average?
Cole County's composite risk score of 73th percentile is above the Missouri state average of 51th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by tornado exposure (84th percentile), along with earthquake and flooding and wildfire risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.

Counties with Similar Risk

Stoddard County

Missouri

+0.9

Relatively Low

74th percentile

Buchanan County

Missouri

+0.9

Relatively Low

74th percentile

Cass County

Missouri

+1.5

Relatively Low

75th percentile

By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.

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