riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Erie County Disaster Risk

Erie County, New York

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively High

National Percentile

98th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#5

of 62 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

99th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively High

Higher than 99% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 63% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Relatively High

Higher than 95% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Moderate

Higher than 86% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 71% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Erie County, New York

Erie County faces the highest regional risk

Erie County's composite risk score of 97.68 places it among the nation's highest-risk counties, earning a relatively high risk rating. The county faces exceptional exposure to floods (99.01), tornadoes (95.39), and earthquakes (85.85), with moderate hurricane risk (71.30) adding further complexity. This extraordinary vulnerability demands urgent, comprehensive disaster preparation.

New York's most dangerous county here

At 97.68, Erie County's composite score far exceeds New York's state average of 69.42, positioning it among the state's most vulnerable counties by a significant margin. This extremely elevated standing reflects Erie's exposure to Lake effect weather, seismic activity, and flat terrain conducive to flooding and tornadoes. The county's risk profile is exceptional and requires the highest level of preparedness.

Dramatically higher risk than all neighbors

Erie's 97.68 score substantially exceeds all other counties in this comparison, including the second-highest Dutchess (88.26) and third-highest Delaware (83.33). No neighboring county approaches Erie's risk level. Your county faces hazard exposure that is quantitatively and qualitatively different from surrounding areas.

Catastrophic flood and tornado exposure

Erie County faces truly exceptional flood risk (99.01)—near-perfect danger score—combined with extremely high tornado exposure (95.39). Earthquake risk (85.85) adds a third major threat, while wildfire (62.63) and hurricane (71.30) exposure round out your comprehensive hazard profile. These converging dangers place Erie among the nation's most disaster-prone counties.

Urgent: obtain all available insurance

Your county's near-maximum flood (99.01) and tornado (95.39) risks make flood insurance and comprehensive wind coverage non-negotiable, regardless of cost or inconvenience. Earthquake insurance deserves serious consideration given your 85.85 exposure. Immediately consult with a professional insurance broker and engineer to assess your property's specific vulnerabilities and available protections.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Erie County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    FloodPrepare
    99th percentile
  2. #2
    TornadoPrepare
    95th percentile
  3. #3
    EarthquakePrepare
    86th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Erie County

Risk Verdict

Erie County carries an elevated natural disaster risk burden, scoring at the 98th percentile nationally under FEMA's risk model. This risk level calls for more than general awareness: insurance coverage review, a family communication plan, and a prepared go-bag are practical priorities.

Hazard Breakdown

Flood risk is Erie County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 99th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Tornado ranks second at the 95th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include earthquake (86th percentile), hurricane (71th percentile), wildfire (63th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Erie County's top natural hazard is flood risk, ranked at the 99th percentile nationally. Homeowners here should confirm whether they are in a FEMA-designated flood zone and check if standard homeowners insurance covers flood damage — it typically does not. Secondary tornado exposure at the 95th percentile adds a second preparedness layer; households should review coverage options and alert sign-up for both hazard types. For most Erie County households, the highest-return preparedness step is storing critical documents in digital cloud backup combined with a pre-designated family meeting point if communication is disrupted.

Regional Context

Erie County's composite risk score sits 28.3 points above the New York county average, placing it among the more hazard-exposed counties in the state.

Is your household prepared for Erie County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Erie County, NY?
Erie County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively High, placing it in the 98th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Erie County?
Erie County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: flooding (99th percentile), tornado (95th percentile), earthquake (86th percentile), hurricane (71th percentile), wildfire (63th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is flooding at the 99th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Erie County risk compare to the New York average?
Erie County's composite risk percentile is 98th, compared to the New York state average of 69th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means Erie County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in New York.
Is Erie County at risk for flooding?
Yes, Erie County's flooding risk is at the 99th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Erie County higher risk than average?
Erie County's composite risk score of 98th percentile is above the New York state average of 69th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by flooding exposure (99th percentile), along with tornado and earthquake and hurricane and wildfire risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.