riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Josephine County Disaster Risk

Josephine County, Oregon

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Moderate

National Percentile

90th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#10

of 36 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

90th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Moderate

Higher than 90% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Relatively High

Higher than 99% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 5% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively High

Higher than 95% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Josephine County, Oregon

Josephine ranks above average nationally

With a composite risk score of 90.24, Josephine County faces above-average natural disaster risk compared to U.S. counties overall. The county earns a Relatively Moderate rating, driven by significant earthquake and wildfire exposure. This places Josephine in the riskier half of American counties, requiring serious hazard preparedness.

Oregon's fourth most at-risk county

Josephine's 90.24 score ranks it fourth among Oregon's 36 counties—well above the state average of 63.43. Only Lane, Marion, and one other county face higher composite risk in Oregon. This elevated standing reflects Josephine's location in a seismically active and fire-prone region.

Far riskier than southern Oregon peers

Josephine (90.24) dwarfs nearby Klamath County (77.93) and Lake County (19.08) on composite risk. Josephine's wildfire risk of 99.24 is among the state's highest, while neighboring counties show dramatically lower overall exposure. This difference underscores Josephine's unique vulnerability to cascading disaster scenarios.

Wildfire and earthquakes dominate here

Josephine faces an extreme wildfire risk of 99.24—among Oregon's most dangerous—alongside a critical earthquake risk of 95.20. The county's 90.20 flood risk rounds out a trio of serious hazards. Together, these three threats create compounding vulnerabilities that demand tailored emergency planning and home hardening.

Prioritize earthquake and wildfire insurance

Homeowners in Josephine must secure comprehensive earthquake insurance alongside standard homeowners coverage, given the 95.20 earthquake risk. Wildfire coverage gaps are common in high-risk zones; verify your policy covers wildfire damage and consider additional riders. Working with a local agent familiar with Josephine's specific hazards ensures you're not underinsured.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Josephine County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    WildfirePrepare
    99th percentile
  2. #2
    EarthquakePrepare
    95th percentile
  3. #3
    FloodPrepare
    90th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Josephine County

Risk Verdict

Natural hazard risk in Josephine County is higher than the majority of U.S. counties, with a national composite rank of 90th. Josephine County's elevated composite score reflects cumulative multi-hazard exposure; households should prepare for the county's two or three primary hazard types.

Hazard Breakdown

Wildfire risk is Josephine County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 99th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Earthquake ranks second at the 95th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include flood (90th percentile), tornado (5th percentile).

Preparedness Context

At the 99th percentile nationally for wildfire, Josephine County residents should verify whether their insurance policy includes replacement cost coverage for structures and whether the insurer still writes new policies in this fire-risk zone. A secondary earthquake exposure at the 95th percentile nationally means Josephine County residents face hazards from two distinct natural peril categories during different seasons. Local USFS or Cal Fire (where applicable) fire risk maps and seasonal Red Flag Warning alerts from the National Weather Service are two free resources Josephine County residents can use to stay ahead of rapidly changing wildfire conditions.

Regional Context

A composite score 26.8 points above the Oregon state average puts Josephine County in a higher-risk category than most counties in the state.

Is your household prepared for Josephine County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Josephine County, OR?
Josephine County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Moderate, placing it in the 90th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Josephine County?
Josephine County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: wildfire (99th percentile), earthquake (95th percentile), flooding (90th percentile), tornado (5th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is wildfire at the 99th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Josephine County risk compare to the Oregon average?
Josephine County's composite risk percentile is 90th, compared to the Oregon state average of 63th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means Josephine County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Oregon.
Is Josephine County at risk for wildfire?
Yes, Josephine County's wildfire risk is at the 99th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Josephine County is at the 90th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Josephine County higher risk than average?
Josephine County's composite risk score of 90th percentile is above the Oregon state average of 63th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by wildfire exposure (99th percentile), along with earthquake and flooding risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.