riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Bastrop County Disaster Risk

Bastrop County, Texas

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Moderate

National Percentile

81th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#48

of 254 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

86th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Moderate

Higher than 86% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 72% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Moderate

Higher than 91% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Very Low

Higher than 21% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 63% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Bastrop County, Texas

Bastrop County Faces Notably Higher Risk

Bastrop County's composite risk score of 81.17 ranks as Relatively Moderate and substantially above the national average. This Central Texas county sits in a zone of convergent natural hazards, making it riskier than 80% of U.S. counties.

High-Risk Rank Among Texas Counties

Bastrop County's 81.17 score far exceeds Texas's 49.00 state average, placing it well into the upper-risk tier statewide. Its proximity to Austin and location along the Balcones Escarpment amplifies exposure to multiple hazards.

Riskier Than Most Regional Neighbors

Bastrop County's 81.17 score exceeds neighboring Blanco (33.02) and Caldwell counties, approaching the hazard levels of Bexar County (99.43). Its central location makes it a convergence zone for tornadoes, floods, and wildfires.

Tornadoes Top Your Risk Profile

Tornado risk reaches 91.06 in Bastrop County—nearly the highest in the state—combined with substantial flood risk (86.23) and wildfire exposure (71.79). This triple threat creates exceptional vulnerability during severe weather seasons.

Bundle Comprehensive Coverage Now

Bastrop homeowners need flood insurance, robust wind/hail coverage for tornadoes, and wildfire protection to cover all three top hazards. Your home's location demands above-standard policy limits and careful review of exclusions.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Bastrop County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    TornadoPrepare
    91th percentile
  2. #2
    FloodPrepare
    86th percentile
  3. #3
    WildfirePrepare
    72th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Bastrop County

Risk Verdict

With a composite score at the 81th percentile, Bastrop County sits above the national median for natural hazard exposure. Proactive preparedness — not reactive response — is key to managing life in one of the country's higher-risk counties; Bastrop County residents should plan accordingly.

Hazard Breakdown

Tornado risk is Bastrop County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 91th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Flood ranks second at the 86th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include wildfire (72th percentile), hurricane (63th percentile), earthquake (21th percentile).

Preparedness Context

At the 91th percentile nationally for tornado risk, Bastrop County households benefit most from a reliable alert system — a NOAA weather radio that activates during overnight hours when residents may not be checking smartphone alerts. The secondary flood hazard at the 86th percentile nationally adds seasonal complexity to Bastrop County's preparedness calendar, since flood and tornado risk often peak at different points in the year. For Bastrop County households, a pre-decided family shelter plan — who goes where, how children are retrieved from school during a warning, and a neighborhood meet-up point if phones fail — provides real protection that no supply kit alone can replicate.

Regional Context

At 32.2 points above the Texas state average, Bastrop County carries meaningfully higher natural disaster exposure than a typical Texas county.

Is your household prepared for Bastrop County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Bastrop County, TX?
Bastrop County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Moderate, placing it in the 81th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Bastrop County?
Bastrop County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: tornado (91th percentile), flooding (86th percentile), wildfire (72th percentile), hurricane (63th percentile), earthquake (21th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is tornado at the 91th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Bastrop County risk compare to the Texas average?
Bastrop County's composite risk percentile is 81th, compared to the Texas state average of 49th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means Bastrop County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Texas.
Is Bastrop County at risk for tornado?
Yes, Bastrop County's tornado risk is at the 91th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Bastrop County is at the 86th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Bastrop County higher risk than average?
Bastrop County's composite risk score of 81th percentile is above the Texas state average of 49th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by tornado exposure (91th percentile), along with flooding and wildfire and hurricane risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.