riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Ellis County Disaster Risk

Ellis County, Texas

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Moderate

National Percentile

82th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#46

of 254 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

83th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Moderate

Higher than 83% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Moderate

Higher than 86% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Moderate

Higher than 88% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 51% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 52% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Ellis County, Texas

Ellis County's Substantial Risk Exposure

Ellis County scores 81.62 on the national composite risk scale, earning a Relatively Moderate rating and placing it well above the U.S. average. This elevation reflects Ellis's exposure across multiple hazard categories, particularly flood, wildfire, and tornado risks. Residents face natural disaster exposure approximately 65% higher than typical American counties.

Among Texas's Highest-Risk Counties

At 81.62, Ellis County exceeds Texas's state average of 49.00 by 67%, ranking among the state's most hazard-exposed counties. Only a handful of Texas counties—notably El Paso (95.45) and Ector (82.82)—score higher in composite risk. Ellis residents occupy the upper tier of statewide natural disaster vulnerability.

Riskier Than Most Surrounding Counties

Ellis County's 81.62 significantly exceeds Erath County (75.00) and dramatically surpasses Edwards County (5.73) and Donley County (26.62). It ranks nearly identically to Ector County (82.82), making both counties statistical peers in terms of hazard exposure. This concentration reflects Ellis's North Texas location and proximity to flood-prone river corridors.

Flood, Wildfire, and Tornado Dominance

Ellis County's highest risks are flood (83.46), tornado (87.75), and wildfire (86.07)—all in the elevated range and reflecting North Texas's vulnerability to severe spring storms and water events. Hurricane risk at 52.19 adds a secondary concern, while earthquake exposure at 51.11 is moderate. These hazards collectively make Ellis one of Texas's most multi-hazard-exposed counties.

Multi-Hazard Insurance Essential

Ellis County residents must purchase separate flood insurance immediately, as the county's 83.46 flood risk score makes this non-negotiable and standard policies exclude it. Add tornado/hail riders and comprehensive wildfire coverage given those hazard scores near 87%. Review your policy limits annually and maintain a current home inventory for disaster recovery purposes.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Ellis County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    TornadoPrepare
    88th percentile
  2. #2
    WildfirePrepare
    86th percentile
  3. #3
    FloodPrepare
    83th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Ellis County

Risk Verdict

Ellis County faces a moderate natural disaster risk profile, ranking at the 82th percentile nationally under FEMA's composite risk model. This risk level calls for more than general awareness: insurance coverage review, a family communication plan, and a prepared go-bag are practical priorities.

Hazard Breakdown

Tornado risk is Ellis County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 88th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Wildfire ranks second at the 86th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include flood (83th percentile), hurricane (52th percentile), earthquake (51th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Tornado risk is Ellis County's top-ranked natural hazard at the 88th percentile nationally. For Ellis County households, the most protective action available is identifying a reinforced interior room on the lowest floor — a bathroom, closet, or central hallway away from windows. Alongside tornado exposure, wildfire at the 86th percentile nationally means Ellis County households face multi-hazard severe-weather seasons that benefit from a single integrated emergency plan covering both threats. A battery-powered NOAA All Hazards weather radio with an auto-alert tone is the highest-leverage single item for tornado preparedness in Ellis County, since it delivers warnings even when power is out and phone networks are congested.

Regional Context

Ellis County's composite risk score sits 32.6 points above the Texas county average, placing it among the more hazard-exposed counties in the state.

Is your household prepared for Ellis County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Ellis County, TX?
Ellis County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Moderate, placing it in the 82th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Ellis County?
Ellis County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: tornado (88th percentile), wildfire (86th percentile), flooding (83th percentile), hurricane (52th percentile), earthquake (51th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is tornado at the 88th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Ellis County risk compare to the Texas average?
Ellis County's composite risk percentile is 82th, compared to the Texas state average of 49th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means Ellis County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Texas.
Is Ellis County at risk for tornado?
Yes, Ellis County's tornado risk is at the 88th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Ellis County is at the 83th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Ellis County higher risk than average?
Ellis County's composite risk score of 82th percentile is above the Texas state average of 49th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by tornado exposure (88th percentile), along with wildfire and flooding and hurricane and earthquake risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.