riskbycounty
FEMA National Risk Index

Carroll County Disaster Risk

Carroll County, Virginia

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Low

National Percentile

45th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#45

of 133 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

43th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Very Low

Higher than 43% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 56% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 30% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 47% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 61% of US counties

Risk Advisory: Carroll County

Risk Verdict

Carroll County shows a relatively low overall disaster risk profile, scoring in the 45th percentile nationally. The county faces moderate hazard exposure relative to other U.S. counties. Standard emergency preparedness is recommended, with attention to the specific hazards that dominate locally.

Hazard Breakdown

Hurricane risk is the dominant hazard for Carroll County, scoring in the 61th percentile nationally. It is followed by wildfire risk at the 56th percentile. Additional hazards include earthquake (47th), flood (43th), tornado (30th).

Preparedness Context

With hurricane risk as the top concern, Carroll County residents should know your evacuation route, stockpile supplies for at least 72 hours, and review your homeowners and flood insurance policies annually. Secondary risks such as wildfire also warrant attention in household and community preparedness planning. FEMA recommends all households maintain at least 72 hours of food, water, and medication supplies regardless of specific hazard exposure.

Regional Context

Carroll County is significantly riskier than the average county in Virginia. Its composite risk score is 11.9 points higher than the state average, meaning residents face above-average exposure to natural hazards compared to their neighbors.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Carroll County, VA?
Carroll County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low, placing it in the 45th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Carroll County?
Carroll County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: hurricane (61th percentile), wildfire (56th percentile), earthquake (47th percentile), flooding (43th percentile), tornado (30th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is hurricane at the 61th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Carroll County risk compare to the Virginia average?
Carroll County's composite risk percentile is 45th, compared to the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Very Low. This means Carroll County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Virginia.
Is Carroll County at risk for hurricane?
Yes, Carroll County's hurricane risk is at the 61th percentile nationally. This is above the national median. For flooding specifically, Carroll County is at the 43th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Carroll County higher risk than average?
Carroll County's composite risk score of 45th percentile is above the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by hurricane exposure (61th percentile), along with wildfire risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.

Counties with Similar Risk

Frederick County

Virginia

-0.4

Relatively Low

45th percentile

York County

Virginia

-0.5

Relatively Low

45th percentile

Northampton County

Virginia

-0.7

Relatively Low

44th percentile

By Logan Johnson, Founder & Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Logan Johnson, Founder & Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.

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