riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Carroll County Disaster Risk

Carroll County, Virginia

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Low

National Percentile

45th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#45

of 133 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

43th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Very Low

Higher than 43% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 56% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 30% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 47% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 61% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Carroll County, Virginia

Carroll faces above-average national risk

Carroll County's composite risk score of 45.13 and Relatively Low rating indicate above-average natural disaster exposure compared to U.S. counties. The county's elevated wildfire and flood risks distinguish it as more hazard-prone than many American communities.

Higher risk than most Virginia counties

Carroll County's composite score of 45.13 substantially exceeds Virginia's state average of 33.27, making it one of the commonwealth's higher-risk jurisdictions. The county's wildfire exposure at 55.88 ranks among the highest in Virginia, reflecting its mountain terrain and forestry.

Riskiest among nearby western counties

Carroll County's score of 45.13 significantly exceeds neighboring Buckingham County (18.96), Charlotte County (17.37), and Charles City County (9.32). Its 55.88 wildfire risk notably surpasses all regional peers, reflecting the county's higher elevation and forest coverage.

Wildfire dominates Carroll's hazard profile

Carroll County faces exceptional wildfire risk at 55.88, substantially above state and national averages, alongside notable flood exposure at 42.65. Hurricane (61.28) and earthquake (47.49) risks complement the county's concentrated wildfire vulnerability in a relatively rare high-risk profile for Virginia.

Wildfire preparation is critical priority

Residents should create and maintain defensible space around homes—clearing dead vegetation, trimming overhanging branches, and using fire-resistant landscaping materials. Supplement standard homeowners insurance with flood coverage for stream-adjacent properties, and develop a family evacuation plan given the county's elevated wildfire risk at 55.88.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Carroll County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    HurricanePrepare
    61th percentile
  2. #2
    WildfirePrepare
    56th percentile
  3. #3
    EarthquakePrepare
    47th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Carroll County

Risk Verdict

At the 45th percentile nationally, Carroll County experiences a manageable level of natural hazard risk that falls below the U.S. median. A preparedness foundation — alert registration, household communication plan, and a basic supply review — costs little and remains valuable even at Carroll County's favorable 45th percentile ranking.

Hazard Breakdown

Hurricane risk is Carroll County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 61th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Wildfire ranks second at the 56th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include earthquake (47th percentile), flood (43th percentile), tornado (30th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Carroll County's primary hazard, hurricane, ranks at the 61th percentile nationally. Having a designated out-of-area contact, a pre-packed go-bag with medications and documents, and a confirmed evacuation route reduces decision-making load when a storm intensifies rapidly. Wildfire at the 56th percentile nationally is Carroll County's secondary hazard, often intensified by the same weather systems that produce hurricane conditions. The National Hurricane Center's official forecast cone and local NWS office watches and warnings are the authoritative sources for Carroll County storm tracking; households benefit from bookmarking these before storm season rather than relying on social media during an event.

Regional Context

Carroll County falls 11.9 points above Virginia's typical county risk level, which means the hazard environment here is notably more demanding than the state baseline.

Is your household prepared for Carroll County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Carroll County, VA?
Carroll County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low, placing it in the 45th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Carroll County?
Carroll County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: hurricane (61th percentile), wildfire (56th percentile), earthquake (47th percentile), flooding (43th percentile), tornado (30th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is hurricane at the 61th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Carroll County risk compare to the Virginia average?
Carroll County's composite risk percentile is 45th, compared to the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Very Low. This means Carroll County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Virginia.
Is Carroll County at risk for hurricane?
Yes, Carroll County's hurricane risk is at the 61th percentile nationally. This is above the national median. For flooding specifically, Carroll County is at the 43th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Carroll County higher risk than average?
Carroll County's composite risk score of 45th percentile is above the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by hurricane exposure (61th percentile), along with wildfire risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.