riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Frederick County Disaster Risk

Frederick County, Virginia

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Low

National Percentile

45th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#46

of 133 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

60th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 60% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 58% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 33% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 60% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 76% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Frederick County, Virginia

Frederick County carries above-average risk

Frederick County's composite risk score of 44.72 exceeds Virginia's state average of 33.27, ranking it in the relatively low category but with significant hazard exposure. Hurricanes (76.39), floods (59.99), and wildfires (57.82) all register as considerable threats.

Frederick ranks in Virginia's riskier half

At 44.72 versus the state average of 33.27, Frederick County sits among Virginia's higher-risk jurisdictions. The county's Shenandoah Valley location exposes it to multiple hazard pathways, from tropical weather systems to seismic activity.

Frederick rivals Fauquier in risk exposure

Frederick's 44.72 score closely mirrors Fauquier County (47.68) and exceeds Franklin County (42.72), while dramatically outpacing Floyd (6.62) and Fluvanna (13.49). The northern Virginia counties share similar geographic vulnerabilities to Atlantic hurricane systems.

Hurricanes, wildfires, and floods converge

Frederick County faces its highest risks from hurricanes (76.39), wildfire (57.82), and floods (59.99)—an unusual triple threat rarely seen in Virginia. Earthquake risk (59.73) and tornado risk (33.37) add additional complexity to the county's hazard profile.

Multi-hazard insurance strategy essential

Frederick County residents face diverse, elevated risks requiring comprehensive insurance planning: separate flood insurance (excluded from standard policies) and wildfire coverage verification are both critical. Consider earthquake insurance as well, given the county's 59.73 score and proximity to seismic zones.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Frederick County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    HurricanePrepare
    76th percentile
  2. #2
    FloodPrepare
    60th percentile
  3. #3
    EarthquakePrepare
    60th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Frederick County

Risk Verdict

Frederick County's FEMA risk score places it at the 45th percentile nationally, indicating lower-than-typical exposure for a U.S. county. At the 45th percentile nationally, Frederick County's natural hazard profile is comparatively favorable — community resilience is reinforced when individual households maintain a reviewed emergency plan.

Hazard Breakdown

Hurricane risk is Frederick County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 76th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Flood ranks second at the 60th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include earthquake (60th percentile), wildfire (58th percentile), tornado (33th percentile).

Preparedness Context

With hurricane ranked at the 76th percentile nationally, Frederick County sits in a zone where multi-day supply readiness matters: grid outages after landfalling storms can last one to three weeks in heavily affected areas. Flood, the county's second-ranked hazard at the 60th percentile nationally, represents an additional preparedness consideration for Frederick County independent of hurricane season. Insurance gaps are the most common post-hurricane financial shock: standard homeowners policies typically exclude flood damage and may have a separate wind deductible. Frederick County households benefit from a pre-season insurance review confirming both wind and flood coverage.

Regional Context

The Virginia county average is 11.5 composite points below Frederick County's score, a gap that reflects the county's elevated position in the state's hazard distribution.

Is your household prepared for Frederick County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Frederick County, VA?
Frederick County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low, placing it in the 45th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Frederick County?
Frederick County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: hurricane (76th percentile), flooding (60th percentile), earthquake (60th percentile), wildfire (58th percentile), tornado (33th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is hurricane at the 76th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Frederick County risk compare to the Virginia average?
Frederick County's composite risk percentile is 45th, compared to the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Very Low. This means Frederick County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Virginia.
Is Frederick County at risk for hurricane?
Yes, Frederick County's hurricane risk is at the 76th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Frederick County is at the 60th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Frederick County higher risk than average?
Frederick County's composite risk score of 45th percentile is above the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by hurricane exposure (76th percentile), along with flooding and earthquake and wildfire risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.