riskbycounty
FEMA National Risk Index

Frederick County Disaster Risk

Frederick County, Virginia

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Low

National Percentile

45th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#46

of 133 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

60th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 60% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 58% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 33% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 60% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 76% of US counties

Risk Advisory: Frederick County

Risk Verdict

Frederick County shows a relatively low overall disaster risk profile, scoring in the 45th percentile nationally. The county faces moderate hazard exposure relative to other U.S. counties. Standard emergency preparedness is recommended, with attention to the specific hazards that dominate locally.

Hazard Breakdown

Hurricane risk is the dominant hazard for Frederick County, scoring in the 76th percentile nationally. It is followed by flood risk at the 60th percentile. Additional hazards include earthquake (60th), wildfire (58th), tornado (33th).

Preparedness Context

With hurricane risk as the top concern, Frederick County residents should know your evacuation route, stockpile supplies for at least 72 hours, and review your homeowners and flood insurance policies annually. Secondary risks such as flood also warrant attention in household and community preparedness planning. FEMA recommends all households maintain at least 72 hours of food, water, and medication supplies regardless of specific hazard exposure.

Regional Context

Frederick County is significantly riskier than the average county in Virginia. Its composite risk score is 11.5 points higher than the state average, meaning residents face above-average exposure to natural hazards compared to their neighbors.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Frederick County, VA?
Frederick County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low, placing it in the 45th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Frederick County?
Frederick County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: hurricane (76th percentile), flooding (60th percentile), earthquake (60th percentile), wildfire (58th percentile), tornado (33th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is hurricane at the 76th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Frederick County risk compare to the Virginia average?
Frederick County's composite risk percentile is 45th, compared to the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Very Low. This means Frederick County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Virginia.
Is Frederick County at risk for hurricane?
Yes, Frederick County's hurricane risk is at the 76th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Frederick County is at the 60th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Frederick County higher risk than average?
Frederick County's composite risk score of 45th percentile is above the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by hurricane exposure (76th percentile), along with flooding and earthquake and wildfire risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.

Counties with Similar Risk

York County

Virginia

-0.1

Relatively Low

45th percentile

Northampton County

Virginia

-0.3

Relatively Low

44th percentile

Carroll County

Virginia

+0.4

Relatively Low

45th percentile

By Logan Johnson, Founder & Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Logan Johnson, Founder & Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.

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