riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Fredericksburg city Disaster Risk

Fredericksburg city, Virginia

FEMA Risk Rating

Very Low

National Percentile

9th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#109

of 133 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

21th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Very Low

Higher than 21% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Very Low

Higher than 2% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 21% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 57% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 58% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Fredericksburg city, Virginia

Fredericksburg city enjoys very low risk

Fredericksburg city's composite risk score of 8.71 sits well below Virginia's state average of 33.27, placing it in the very low category nationally. The compact urban setting and inland position minimize exposure to most major natural hazards.

Fredericksburg ranks among Virginia's safest

With a composite score of 8.71 compared to Virginia's 33.27 average, Fredericksburg city ranks as one of the state's lowest-risk communities. The city's modest population density and geographic position provide substantial hazard protection.

Fredericksburg matches Franklin city's safety

Fredericksburg city's 8.71 score closely aligns with Franklin city (7.54) and far exceeds nearby Fauquier (47.68) and Frederick counties (44.72). The two cities share similar low-risk profiles despite their geographic separation.

Earthquake and hurricane pose modest concerns

Fredericksburg's highest risks are earthquake (57.47) and hurricane (57.86)—both elevated despite the city's low composite score. Flood risk (20.58) and tornado risk (21.02) remain moderate, while wildfire risk (1.75) is negligible in this urban setting.

Standard coverage handles most scenarios

Fredericksburg residents' primary concern should be the moderate earthquake and hurricane risks, suggesting consideration of supplemental coverage for these hazards. Flood insurance is optional given the city's 20.58 score, though properties near the Rappahannock River should verify their specific flood zone status.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Fredericksburg city

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    HurricanePrepare
    58th percentile
  2. #2
    EarthquakePrepare
    57th percentile
  3. #3
    TornadoPrepare
    21th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Fredericksburg city

Risk Verdict

Fredericksburg city carries a low natural disaster risk burden, scoring at the 9th percentile under the FEMA National Risk Index. Fredericksburg city's lower-than-average risk profile at the 9th percentile makes it a more manageable preparedness environment, but a reviewed household plan remains the right foundation regardless.

Hazard Breakdown

Hurricane risk is Fredericksburg city's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 58th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Earthquake ranks second at the 57th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include tornado (21th percentile), flood (21th percentile), wildfire (2th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Fredericksburg city's primary hazard, hurricane, ranks at the 58th percentile nationally. Having a designated out-of-area contact, a pre-packed go-bag with medications and documents, and a confirmed evacuation route reduces decision-making load when a storm intensifies rapidly. The county's secondary earthquake risk at the 57th percentile nationally means Fredericksburg city faces compounding hazards — inland flooding often follows landfalling hurricanes even well away from the coast. The National Hurricane Center's official forecast cone and local NWS office watches and warnings are the authoritative sources for Fredericksburg city storm tracking; households benefit from bookmarking these before storm season rather than relying on social media during an event.

Regional Context

Compared to the Virginia county average, Fredericksburg city's composite score runs 24.6 points lower — a gap that reflects the county's relatively modest hazard profile within its state context.

Is your household prepared for Fredericksburg city's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Fredericksburg city, VA?
Fredericksburg city has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low, placing it in the 9th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Fredericksburg city?
Fredericksburg city is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: hurricane (58th percentile), earthquake (57th percentile), tornado (21th percentile), flooding (21th percentile), wildfire (2th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is hurricane at the 58th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Fredericksburg city risk compare to the Virginia average?
Fredericksburg city's composite risk percentile is 9th, compared to the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Very Low. This means Fredericksburg city faces lower natural disaster risk than the typical county in Virginia.
Is Fredericksburg city at risk for hurricane?
Yes, Fredericksburg city's hurricane risk is at the 58th percentile nationally. This is above the national median. For flooding specifically, Fredericksburg city is at the 21th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Is Fredericksburg city a safe place to live?
Fredericksburg city's composite risk score of 9th percentile is below the Virginia state average of 33th percentile, indicating relatively lower exposure to natural hazards. However, no county is completely risk-free. The primary hazard type is hurricane at the 58th percentile. Residents should still maintain emergency preparedness plans and appropriate insurance coverage.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.