riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Lynchburg city Disaster Risk

Lynchburg city, Virginia

FEMA Risk Rating

Relatively Low

National Percentile

49th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#37

of 133 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

65th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 65% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Very Low

Higher than 9% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 32% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 73% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 74% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Lynchburg city, Virginia

Lynchburg faces moderate disaster risk

With a composite risk score of 49.30 and a Relatively Low rating, Lynchburg city experiences notably higher natural disaster risk than most U.S. counties. The city's score exceeds Virginia's state average of 33.27, driven particularly by flood exposure and tornado vulnerability.

Mid-range risk for Virginia communities

Lynchburg ranks in the middle range of Virginia counties for overall disaster risk, with its score reflecting above-average flood and earthquake exposure. The city's Relatively Low rating indicates manageable but meaningful hazard exposure compared to safer Virginia communities.

Flood risk higher than nearby counties

Lynchburg's flood risk score of 65.27 significantly exceeds nearby Manassas city (31.68) and Madison County (19.53), reflecting its location in a more flood-prone area. However, the city has lower overall risk than Mecklenburg County (54.33), its closest peer in risk profile.

Flooding is Lynchburg's primary threat

Flood risk dominates Lynchburg's hazard profile at 65.27, reflecting the city's proximity to river systems and low-lying areas vulnerable to heavy rainfall. Tornado risk (31.84) poses a secondary concern, while earthquake risk (73.00) presents a lower-probability but significant potential impact.

Flood insurance essential for Lynchburg residents

Lynchburg's elevated flood risk makes standalone flood insurance critically important—standard homeowners policies do not cover flood damage. Residents should assess their property's flood zone status and strongly consider National Flood Insurance Program coverage, especially those in designated high-risk areas.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Lynchburg city

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    HurricanePrepare
    74th percentile
  2. #2
    EarthquakePrepare
    73th percentile
  3. #3
    FloodPrepare
    65th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Lynchburg city

Risk Verdict

Lynchburg city sits below the national average for natural disaster exposure, ranking at the 49th percentile across all U.S. counties. No county at the 49th percentile is entirely free of natural hazard exposure; Lynchburg city residents benefit from staying alert to local conditions and signing up for county emergency alerts.

Hazard Breakdown

Hurricane risk is Lynchburg city's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 74th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Earthquake ranks second at the 73th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include flood (65th percentile), tornado (32th percentile), wildfire (9th percentile).

Preparedness Context

At the 74th percentile nationally for hurricane risk, Lynchburg city is in a zone where flood insurance matters beyond the primary wind risk: NFIP flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period before taking effect, making off-season enrollment the correct timing. Alongside hurricane exposure, earthquake at the 73th percentile nationally means Lynchburg city households should plan for multiple hazard scenarios within a single storm event. For Lynchburg city households, the hurricane preparedness calendar matters: flood insurance has a 30-day waiting period, wind-hardening retrofits take weeks to schedule, and evacuation route scouting is best done before a storm watch is issued.

Regional Context

A composite score 16.0 points above the Virginia state average puts Lynchburg city in a higher-risk category than most counties in the state.

Is your household prepared for Lynchburg city's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Lynchburg city, VA?
Lynchburg city has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low, placing it in the 49th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Lynchburg city?
Lynchburg city is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: hurricane (74th percentile), earthquake (73th percentile), flooding (65th percentile), tornado (32th percentile), wildfire (9th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is hurricane at the 74th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Lynchburg city risk compare to the Virginia average?
Lynchburg city's composite risk percentile is 49th, compared to the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Very Low. This means Lynchburg city faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Virginia.
Is Lynchburg city at risk for hurricane?
Yes, Lynchburg city's hurricane risk is at the 74th percentile nationally. This is above the national median. For flooding specifically, Lynchburg city is at the 65th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Lynchburg city higher risk than average?
Lynchburg city's composite risk score of 49th percentile is above the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by hurricane exposure (74th percentile), along with earthquake and flooding risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.