riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

Northumberland County Disaster Risk

Northumberland County, Virginia

FEMA Risk Rating

Very Low

National Percentile

40th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#51

of 133 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

68th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 68% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Very Low

Higher than 20% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 27% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Very Low

Higher than 39% of US counties

Hurricane

Tropical cyclone and hurricane risk

Moderate

Higher than 87% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in Northumberland County, Virginia

Northumberland maintains below-national risk levels

With a composite risk score of 39.98, Northumberland County rates as Very Low, positioning it safely below the nation's average natural disaster exposure. Your community faces less overall threat than typical American counties.

Slightly above Virginia's statewide average

At 39.98, Northumberland edges above Virginia's state average of 33.27 by about 20 percent, placing it in the state's middle-to-higher range. You experience moderate hazard exposure relative to other Virginia communities.

Mid-tier risk among regional counties

Northumberland (39.98) ranks in the middle of this county grouping—safer than Nelson (34.10) and Northampton (44.47), but more exposed than Middlesex (23.79) and New Kent (14.12). Your Northern Neck location reflects typical Tidewater vulnerability patterns.

Hurricane and flood pose leading threats

Hurricane risk peaks at 86.90, reflecting Atlantic storm exposure, while flood risk stands at 68.40 from river and tidal influences. Tornado (27.19), earthquake (38.93), and wildfire (19.62) threats remain secondary but merit preparedness attention.

Hurricane and flood insurance are essential

Separate flood and hurricane insurance policies are crucial investments given Northumberland's 68.40 flood and 86.90 hurricane scores. Trim trees overhanging your property, secure roof fasteners before storm season, and verify coverage limits match current property replacement cost.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in Northumberland County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    HurricanePrepare
    87th percentile
  2. #2
    FloodPrepare
    68th percentile
  3. #3
    EarthquakePrepare
    39th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: Northumberland County

Risk Verdict

Northumberland County carries a low natural disaster risk burden, scoring at the 40th percentile under the FEMA National Risk Index. Even at the 40th percentile, Northumberland County's composite score reflects real hazard exposure categories — knowing which ones apply locally enables targeted, efficient household preparedness.

Hazard Breakdown

Hurricane risk is Northumberland County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 87th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Flood ranks second at the 68th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include earthquake (39th percentile), tornado (27th percentile), wildfire (20th percentile).

Preparedness Context

Northumberland County's primary hazard, hurricane, ranks at the 87th percentile nationally. Having a designated out-of-area contact, a pre-packed go-bag with medications and documents, and a confirmed evacuation route reduces decision-making load when a storm intensifies rapidly. Northumberland County's flood exposure at the 68th percentile nationally adds a hazard layer that can persist or intensify after hurricane-force winds have passed, particularly in low-lying inland areas. The National Hurricane Center's official forecast cone and local NWS office watches and warnings are the authoritative sources for Northumberland County storm tracking; households benefit from bookmarking these before storm season rather than relying on social media during an event.

Regional Context

Northumberland County falls 6.7 points above Virginia's typical county risk level, which means the hazard environment here is notably more demanding than the state baseline.

Is your household prepared for Northumberland County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Northumberland County, VA?
Northumberland County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low, placing it in the 40th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect Northumberland County?
Northumberland County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: hurricane (87th percentile), flooding (68th percentile), earthquake (39th percentile), tornado (27th percentile), wildfire (20th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is hurricane at the 87th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does Northumberland County risk compare to the Virginia average?
Northumberland County's composite risk percentile is 40th, compared to the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Very Low. This means Northumberland County faces higher natural disaster risk than the typical county in Virginia.
Is Northumberland County at risk for hurricane?
Yes, Northumberland County's hurricane risk is at the 87th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, Northumberland County is at the 68th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Why is Northumberland County higher risk than average?
Northumberland County's composite risk score of 40th percentile is above the Virginia state average of 33th percentile. This elevated risk is driven by hurricane exposure (87th percentile), along with flooding risk. Geographic location, terrain, climate patterns, and proximity to flood zones or fault lines all influence a county's risk profile.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.