riskbycounty
FEMA NRI 1.19.0Updated Nov 2023 · Coverage 2014–2023Methodology

San Juan County Disaster Risk

San Juan County, Washington

FEMA Risk Rating

Very Low

National Percentile

35th

of 3,144 counties

State Rank

#33

of 39 (1 = highest risk)

Flood Risk

58th

percentile

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Flood

River, coastal, and surface flooding risk

Relatively Low

Higher than 58% of US counties

Wildfire

Wildland and wildland-urban interface fire risk

Very Low

Higher than 41% of US counties

Tornado

Tornado and severe thunderstorm risk

Very Low

Higher than 4% of US counties

Earthquake

Seismic activity and ground shaking risk

Moderate

Higher than 89% of US counties

Risk Overview

About Natural Disaster Risk in San Juan County, Washington

San Juan County has very low disaster risk

San Juan County scores 35.37 on the composite risk scale, well below Washington's state average of 70.01 and in the very low risk category nationally. This island county faces less frequent or severe natural hazard exposure than the typical American county. Its marine location and relatively protected geography create a favorable disaster risk profile compared to mainland Washington communities.

Among Washington's safest counties

San Juan County ranks in the bottom tier for disaster risk statewide, with a 35.37 score comparable to Pend Oreille County (28.02) and Skamania County (49.68). The county's low scores reflect minimal tornado (4.42) and wildfire (41.32) risks, though earthquake risk is higher at 89.44 due to regional tectonics. San Juan is one of only three Washington counties scoring below 40 on the composite scale.

Island safety with seismic considerations

San Juan County's 35.37 score is lower than neighboring Skagit County (88.77) on the mainland and comparable to remote Pend Oreille County (28.02). San Juan's earthquake risk (89.44) is high relative to its overall score, reflecting the same Cascadia Subduction Zone exposure as western Washington counties despite lower composite risk. Wildfire and tornado risks in San Juan are dramatically lower than mainland neighbors due to marine climate and isolation.

Earthquakes and flooding top the list

Earthquake risk (89.44) is San Juan County's most significant threat, with the Cascadia Subduction Zone affecting the islands despite their protected island location. Flood risk (58.40) is moderate and primarily affects low-lying areas and marine infrastructure during storm surge events. Tornado (4.42) and wildfire (41.32) risks are minimal for island communities, making seismic preparedness the clear priority.

Earthquake insurance and storm preparedness

San Juan County homeowners should prioritize earthquake insurance coverage, as standard homeowners policies exclude seismic damage. Ensure your property is built or retrofitted to modern seismic standards, particularly if you own older structures or waterfront property vulnerable to tsunami hazards. While wildfire risk is low, review emergency evacuation plans for island communities, where ferry access may be limited during major events.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index · Narrative reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Preparedness Guide

What to Prepare for in San Juan County

Top Hazards by Exposure

  1. #1
    EarthquakePrepare
    89th percentile
  2. #2
    FloodPrepare
    58th percentile
  3. #3
    WildfirePrepare
    41th percentile

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 · Percentiles are national (3,144 counties)

Risk Advisory: San Juan County

Risk Verdict

At the 35th percentile nationally, San Juan County experiences relatively limited natural hazard pressure compared to most of the country. A preparedness foundation — alert registration, household communication plan, and a basic supply review — costs little and remains valuable even at San Juan County's favorable 35th percentile ranking.

Hazard Breakdown

Earthquake risk is San Juan County's dominant natural hazard, ranked at the 89th percentile nationally under FEMA's National Risk Index. Flood ranks second at the 58th percentile nationally. Additional tracked hazards include wildfire (41th percentile), tornado (4th percentile).

Preparedness Context

San Juan County ranks at the 89th percentile nationally for earthquake risk. Unlike most natural hazards, earthquakes provide no advance warning; preparedness here means structural adjustments and a practiced response, not alert monitoring. Alongside earthquake exposure, San Juan County's flood risk at the 58th percentile nationally reinforces the value of maintaining a household emergency supply cache usable for multiple hazard scenarios. For earthquake preparedness, San Juan County's county emergency management office often maintains a list of community water supply points, Red Cross shelter locations, and post-quake assistance programs — useful resources to identify before an event occurs.

Regional Context

A composite score 34.6 points below the Washington state average puts San Juan County in a better-than-typical position relative to neighboring counties.

Is your household prepared for San Juan County's hazards?

Review FEMA's county-specific preparedness checklists and emergency planning guides.

FEMA Ready Guide →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in San Juan County, WA?
San Juan County has a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low, placing it in the 35th percentile nationally out of 3,144 counties. This composite score reflects the county's overall exposure to natural hazards including floods, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and hurricanes, weighted by expected annual loss and social vulnerability.
What types of natural hazards affect San Juan County?
San Juan County is evaluated for five major natural hazard types: earthquake (89th percentile), flooding (58th percentile), wildfire (41th percentile), tornado (4th percentile). The highest-risk hazard is earthquake at the 89th percentile nationally. These scores are derived from FEMA's National Risk Index, which analyzes expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience for each hazard type.
How does San Juan County risk compare to the Washington average?
San Juan County's composite risk percentile is 35th, compared to the Washington state average of 70th percentile. The state's overall risk rating is Relatively Low. This means San Juan County faces lower natural disaster risk than the typical county in Washington.
Is San Juan County at risk for earthquake?
Yes, San Juan County's earthquake risk is at the 89th percentile nationally. This places it in the top quartile for this hazard type. For flooding specifically, San Juan County is at the 58th percentile.
How is natural disaster risk measured?
FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) calculates risk scores for 18 natural hazard types across all U.S. counties and census tracts. The composite score combines Expected Annual Loss (estimated dollar losses from each hazard), Social Vulnerability (demographic factors affecting disaster impact), and Community Resilience (ability to recover). Percentile scores rank each county against all 3,144 U.S. counties, and risk ratings range from Very Low to Very High.
Is San Juan County a safe place to live?
San Juan County's composite risk score of 35th percentile is below the Washington state average of 70th percentile, indicating relatively lower exposure to natural hazards. However, no county is completely risk-free. The primary hazard type is earthquake at the 89th percentile. Residents should still maintain emergency preparedness plans and appropriate insurance coverage.
By Evan Brooks, Data EditorUpdated Reviewed by Evan Brooks, Data Editor

Data Source

Risk data sourced from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores are relative rankings (0–100) across all US counties — not absolute risk measures. Higher scores indicate higher relative risk compared to other counties.

Disclaimer: This data is informational only. It is not financial, insurance, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making insurance or real estate decisions.