Natural disaster risk varies not just by county, but by state. Some states have uniformly high risk across nearly all their counties, while others have pockets of high and low risk. Understanding state-level patterns helps contextualize county-level data and reveals regional trends.
We calculated the average composite risk score for every US state by aggregating all county-level FEMA National Risk Index scores within each state.
States with the Highest Average Disaster Risk
These states have the highest average composite risk scores across all their counties:
| Rank | State | Avg Risk Score | Counties Scored |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | District of Columbia | 97.6 | 1 |
| 2 | Delaware | 91.3 | 3 |
| 3 | New Jersey | 90.8 | 21 |
| 4 | California | 88.7 | 58 |
| 5 | Connecticut | 87.6 | 9 |
| 6 | Arizona | 84.5 | 15 |
| 7 | Massachusetts | 78.8 | 14 |
| 8 | Florida | 75.7 | 67 |
| 9 | Hawaii | 75 | 5 |
| 10 | South Carolina | 70.7 | 46 |
| 11 | Washington | 70 | 39 |
| 12 | New Hampshire | 69.9 | 10 |
| 13 | New York | 69.4 | 62 |
| 14 | Pennsylvania | 67.4 | 67 |
| 15 | North Carolina | 66.7 | 100 |
States with the Lowest Average Disaster Risk
These states have the lowest average composite risk scores across all their counties:
| Rank | State | Avg Risk Score | Counties Scored |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Dakota | 22.2 | 53 |
| 2 | Nebraska | 25.8 | 93 |
| 3 | South Dakota | 26.8 | 66 |
| 4 | Kansas | 29.9 | 105 |
| 5 | Virginia | 33.3 | 133 |
| 6 | Montana | 33.3 | 56 |
| 7 | Alaska | 35.2 | 30 |
| 8 | Utah | 36.2 | 29 |
| 9 | Vermont | 36.4 | 14 |
| 10 | Wyoming | 37.9 | 23 |
| 11 | Idaho | 38.5 | 44 |
| 12 | Georgia | 39.5 | 159 |
| 13 | Iowa | 39.7 | 99 |
| 14 | Colorado | 40.7 | 64 |
| 15 | Minnesota | 42.4 | 87 |
Methodology
State averages are calculated by summing all county composite risk scores within each state and dividing by the number of counties with data. All data comes from the FEMA National Risk Index (2020). Composite risk scores are percentile ranks on a 0-100 scale.
Data source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI). Risk scores use percentile-rank methodology on a 0-100 scale. All figures are relative rankings and do not represent absolute predictions of natural disaster occurrence.